[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v297y2021ics030626192100578x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economy-wide rebound makes UK’s electric car subsidy fall short of expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Font Vivanco, David
  • Nechifor, Victor
  • Freire-González, Jaume
  • Calzadilla, Alvaro
Abstract
Environmental policies often underperform due to so-called rebound effects, namely behavioural and systemic responses to technical change leading to additional consumption and environmental damage. While evidence of rebound is abundant, studies generally focus on technical changes that are neither associated with specific technologies nor their production costs, making it difficult to connect these changes with the policies governing them. To overcome this limitation, this study proposes to combine a technology-rich model based on life cycle assessment and a behaviour-optimising model for the global economy based on computable general equilibrium modelling. This approach allows to quantify policy-induced economy-wide rebound effects for four relevant environmental impacts: climate change, acidification, photochemical ozone formation, and particulate matter. We apply this approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the United Kingdom’s subsidy on electric cars. The results show notable economy-wide rebound effects associated with this subsidy: over or close to 100% (no environmental benefits) for acidification and particulate matter impacts, and a lower, yet notable, magnitude for climate change (~20–50%) and photochemical ozone formation (~30–80%) impacts. The results also show the important role of macro-economic effects from price changes, particularly how the shift from petrol to electricity triggered additional demand for cheaper petrol.

Suggested Citation

  • Font Vivanco, David & Nechifor, Victor & Freire-González, Jaume & Calzadilla, Alvaro, 2021. "Economy-wide rebound makes UK’s electric car subsidy fall short of expectations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:297:y:2021:i:c:s030626192100578x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192100578X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117138?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brookes, Len, 1990. "The greenhouse effect: the fallacies in the energy efficiency solution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-201, March.
    2. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    3. Barker, Terry & Ekins, Paul & Foxon, Tim, 2007. "Macroeconomic effects of efficiency policies for energy-intensive industries: The case of the UK Climate Change Agreements, 2000-2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 760-778, July.
    4. Schleich, Joachim & Mills, Bradford & Dütschke, Elisabeth, 2014. "A brighter future? Quantifying the rebound effect in energy efficient lighting," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 35-42.
    5. Pothen, Frank, 2010. "Industrial ecology in policy making: What is achievable and what is not?," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-067, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    6. repec:hal:gemwpa:hal-00991732 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Saunders, Harry D., 2000. "A view from the macro side: rebound, backfire, and Khazzoom-Brookes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 439-449, June.
    8. Hanley, Nick D. & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2006. "The impact of a stimulus to energy efficiency on the economy and the environment: A regional computable general equilibrium analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 161-171.
    9. Steve Sorrell, 2014. "Energy Substitution, Technical Change and Rebound Effects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-24, April.
    10. Broberg, Thomas & Berg, Charlotte & Samakovlis, Eva, 2015. "The economy-wide rebound effect from improved energy efficiency in Swedish industries–A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 26-37.
    11. Bohm, Peter & Lind, Hans, 1993. "Policy evaluation quality : A quasi-experimental study of regional employment subsidies in Sweden," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-65, March.
    12. Turner, Karen, 2009. "Negative rebound and disinvestment effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 648-666, September.
    13. Barker, Terry & Ekins, Paul & Foxon, Tim, 2007. "The macro-economic rebound effect and the UK economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4935-4946, October.
    14. Duarte, Rosa & Sánchez-Chóliz, Julio & Sarasa, Cristina, 2018. "Consumer-side actions in a low-carbon economy: A dynamic CGE analysis for Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 199-210.
    15. Konstantin Stadler & Richard Wood & Tatyana Bulavskaya & Carl†Johan Södersten & Moana Simas & Sarah Schmidt & Arkaitz Usubiaga & José Acosta†Fernández & Jeroen Kuenen & Martin Bruckner & Stefan, 2018. "EXIOBASE 3: Developing a Time Series of Detailed Environmentally Extended Multi†Regional Input†Output Tables," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(3), pages 502-515, June.
    16. Stefan Schmelzer & Michael Miess & Vedunka Kopecna & Milan Scasny, 2018. "Modelling Electric Vehicles as an Abatement Technology in a Hybrid CGE Model," Working Papers IES 2018/16, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2018.
    17. A. Greening, Lorna & Greene, David L. & Difiglio, Carmen, 2000. "Energy efficiency and consumption -- the rebound effect -- a survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6-7), pages 389-401, June.
    18. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    19. Hanley, Nick & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2009. "Do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 692-709, January.
    20. Wene, C.-O., 1996. "Energy-economy analysis: Linking the macroeconomic and systems engineering approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 809-824.
    21. Stefan Pauliuk & Guillaume Majeau-Bettez & Daniel B. Müller & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2016. "Toward a Practical Ontology for Socioeconomic Metabolism," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(6), pages 1260-1272, December.
    22. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Tirado-Seco, Pablo & Samson, Réjean, 2012. "Macroanalysis of the economic and environmental impacts of a 2005–2025 European Union bioenergy policy using the GTAP model and life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1180-1192.
    23. Kenneth Gillingham & David Rapson & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 68-88.
    24. Dandres, Thomas & Gaudreault, Caroline & Tirado-Seco, Pablo & Samson, Réjean, 2011. "Assessing non-marginal variations with consequential LCA: Application to European energy sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3121-3132, August.
    25. Ian W.H. Parry & Antonio M. Bento, 2002. "Tax Deductions, Environmental Policy, and the "Double Dividend" Hypothesis," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 22, pages 397-426, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    26. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M., 2013. "Applying engineering and fleet detail to represent passenger vehicle transport in a computable general equilibrium model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 295-305.
    27. Harry D. Saunders, 2015. "Recent Evidence for Large Rebound: Elucidating the Drivers and their Implications for Climate Change Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    28. Matthew Winning & Alvaro Calzadilla & Raimund Bleischwitz & Victor Nechifor, 2017. "Towards a circular economy: insights based on the development of the global ENGAGE-materials model and evidence for the iron and steel industry," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 383-407, July.
    29. Gibbons, Joel C. & Wolsky, Alan M. & Tolley, George, 1982. "Approximate aggregation and error in input-output models," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 203-230, September.
    30. Martin Petrick & Patrick Zier, 2011. "Regional employment impacts of Common Agricultural Policy measures in Eastern Germany: a difference‐in‐differences approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(2), pages 183-193, March.
    31. Rajagopal, D. & Hochman, G. & Zilberman, D., 2011. "Indirect fuel use change (IFUC) and the lifecycle environmental impact of biofuel policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-233, January.
    32. Font Vivanco, David & Kemp, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2016. "How to deal with the rebound effect? A policy-oriented approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 114-125.
    33. Igos, Elorri & Rugani, Benedetto & Rege, Sameer & Benetto, Enrico & Drouet, Laurent & Zachary, Daniel S., 2015. "Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 234-245.
    34. Felix Creutzig & Alexander Popp & Richard Plevin & Gunnar Luderer & Jan Minx & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2012. "Reconciling top-down and bottom-up modelling on future bioenergy deployment," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 320-327, May.
    35. Glen Peters & Robbie Andrew & James Lennox, 2011. "Constructing An Environmentally-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output Table Using The Gtap Database," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 131-152.
    36. Mizobuchi, Kenichi, 2008. "An empirical study on the rebound effect considering capital costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2486-2516, September.
    37. Bruno Lanz & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2016. "GTAPINGAMS, version 9: Multiregional and small open economy models with alternative demand systems," IRENE Working Papers 16-08, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    38. Allan, Grant & Hanley, Nick & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen, 2007. "The impact of increased efficiency in the industrial use of energy: A computable general equilibrium analysis for the United Kingdom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 779-798, July.
    39. Lucas W. Davis & Alan Fuchs & Paul Gertler, 2014. "Cash for Coolers: Evaluating a Large-Scale Appliance Replacement Program in Mexico," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 207-238, November.
    40. Bruno Lanz & Thomas F Rutherford, 2016. "GTAPinGAMS: Multiregional and Small Open Economy Models," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(2), pages 1-77, December.
    41. David Font Vivanco & Serenella Sala & Will McDowall, 2018. "Roadmap to Rebound: How to Address Rebound Effects from Resource Efficiency Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    42. J. Daniel Khazzoom, 1980. "Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency in Standards for Household Appliances," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 21-40.
    43. Ruzzenenti, F. & Basosi, R., 2008. "The rebound effect: An evolutionary perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 526-537, November.
    44. Parry, Ian W.H. & Bento, Antonio M., 1999. "Tax Deductible Spending, Environmental Policy, and the "Double Dividend" Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 10737, Resources for the Future.
    45. Thomas Rutherford, 1987. "A Modeling System for Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 836, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    46. Dimitropoulos, John, 2007. "Energy productivity improvements and the rebound effect: An overview of the state of knowledge," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6354-6363, December.
    47. Font Vivanco, David & McDowall, Will & Freire-González, Jaume & Kemp, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2016. "The foundations of the environmental rebound effect and its contribution towards a general framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 60-69.
    48. Santarius, Tilman & Soland, Martin, 2018. "How Technological Efficiency Improvements Change Consumer Preferences: Towards a Psychological Theory of Rebound Effects," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 414-424.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Font Vivanco & Serenella Sala & Will McDowall, 2018. "Roadmap to Rebound: How to Address Rebound Effects from Resource Efficiency Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-17, June.
    2. David Font Vivanco & Jaume Freire‐González & Ray Galvin & Tilman Santarius & Hans Jakob Walnum & Tamar Makov & Serenella Sala, 2022. "Rebound effect and sustainability science: A review," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1543-1563, August.
    3. Rocha, Felipe Freitas da & Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de, 2021. "A general equilibrium model of macroeconomic rebound effect: A broader view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Broberg, Thomas & Berg, Charlotte & Samakovlis, Eva, 2015. "The economy-wide rebound effect from improved energy efficiency in Swedish industries–A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 26-37.
    5. Chang, Juin-Jen & Wang, Wei-Neng & Shieh, Jhy-Yuan, 2018. "Environmental rebounds/backfires: Macroeconomic implications for the promotion of environmentally-friendly products," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 35-68.
    6. Cansino, José M. & Ordóñez, Manuel & Prieto, Manuela, 2022. "Decomposition and measurement of the rebound effect: The case of energy efficiency improvements in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    7. Zhou, Meifang & Liu, Yu & Feng, Shenghao & Liu, Yang & Lu, Yingying, 2018. "Decomposition of rebound effect: An energy-specific, general equilibrium analysis in the context of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 280-298.
    8. Cansino, José M. & Román-Collado, Rocío & Merchán, José, 2019. "Do Spanish energy efficiency actions trigger JEVON’S paradox?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 760-770.
    9. Karen Turner, 2013. ""Rebound" Effects from Increased Energy Efficiency: A Time to Pause and Reflect," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    10. Fullerton, Don & Ta, Chi L., 2020. "Costs of energy efficiency mandates can reverse the sign of rebound," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    11. Böhringer, Christoph & Rivers, Nicholas, 2021. "The energy efficiency rebound effect in general equilibrium," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Brockway, Paul E. & Sorrell, Steve & Semieniuk, Gregor & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Court, Victor, 2021. "Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: A review of the evidence and its implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Gioele Figus & Patrizio Lecca & Peter McGregor & Karen Turner, 2017. "Energy efficiency as an instrument of regional development policy? Trading-off the benefits of an economic stimulus and energy rebound effects," Working Papers 1702, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    14. Tugba Somuncu & Christopher Hannum, 2018. "The Rebound Effect of Energy Efficiency Policy in the Presence of Energy Theft," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-28, December.
    15. Wu, Kuei-Yen & Wu, Jung-Hua & Huang, Yun-Hsun & Fu, Szu-Chi & Chen, Chia-Yon, 2016. "Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects by supply-driven input-output model: A case study of Taiwan's industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 904-913.
    16. Lemoine, Derek, 2020. "General equilibrium rebound from energy efficiency innovation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    17. Lu, Yingying & Liu, Yu & Zhou, Meifang, 2017. "Rebound effect of improved energy efficiency for different energy types: A general equilibrium analysis for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 248-256.
    18. Gioele Figus & Patrizio Lecca & Karen Turner & Peter McGregor, 2016. "Increased energy efficiency in Scottish households: trading-off economic benefits and energy rebound effects?," EcoMod2016 9454, EcoMod.
    19. Zhang, Jiangshan & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2017. "The macroeconomic rebound effect in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 202-212.
    20. Freire-González, Jaume, 2017. "Evidence of direct and indirect rebound effect in households in EU-27 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 270-276.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:297:y:2021:i:c:s030626192100578x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.