[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v153y2021ip1s0960077921008304.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding the effects of individual awareness and vector controls on malaria transmission dynamics using multiple optimal control

Author

Listed:
  • Ndii, Meksianis Z.
  • Adi, Yudi Ari
Abstract
Malaria is a vector-borne diseases caused by parasite of genus Plasmodium and is transmitted via a bite of mosquitoes. Although the number of malaria cases has been reduced, an outbreak still happens, which causes deaths particularly in children. In this paper, mathematical models in the absence and presence of awareness programs and vector controls have been formulated and studied. The qualitative analysis of the model has been conducted. A global sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to determine the most influential parameters on the increasing number of infected individuals and the reproduction number. An optimal control approach has been used to analyse the effects of control strategies and the model is fitted to data of malaria cases from Weeluri Health Center, Central Sumba, Indonesia. Qualitative analysis of the model showed that the disease-free and endemic equilibrium are globally stable. Furthermore, the reproduction number for malaria is found to be R0=1.1199. Results from global sensitivity analyses showed that the biting rate, the transmission probability from mosquitoes to human, and human to mosquitoes, and the number of mosquitoes per human are the most influential parameters, which indicate the importance of reducing the contact between human and mosquitoes. This suggests the awareness of individuals to take the prevention actions hold an important role for reducing the contact with mosquitoes. Furthermore, using the Pontryagin maximum principle, we found that the awareness programs and vector control should be implemented at a higher level and the vector controls need to be applied for the entire period to obtain the reduction in the number of infected individuals at the minimum costs. Interestingly, in the absence of vector control programs, it is still possible to reduce the number of malaria cases when the awareness programs have been implemented and aware individuals are willing to take the prevention actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ndii, Meksianis Z. & Adi, Yudi Ari, 2021. "Understanding the effects of individual awareness and vector controls on malaria transmission dynamics using multiple optimal control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:153:y:2021:i:p1:s0960077921008304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111476
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077921008304
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111476?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alemayehu Hailu & Bernt Lindtjørn & Wakgari Deressa & Taye Gari & Eskindir Loha & Bjarne Robberstad, 2017. "Economic burden of malaria and predictors of cost variability to rural households in south-central Ethiopia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Ibrahim, Mahmoud A. & Dénes, Attila, 2021. "Threshold and stability results in a periodic model for malaria transmission with partial immunity in humans," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    3. Kabir, K.M. Ariful & Kuga, Kazuki & Tanimoto, Jun, 2019. "Analysis of SIR epidemic model with information spreading of awareness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 118-125.
    4. Michael T. White & Patrick Walker & Stephan Karl & Manuel W. Hetzel & Tim Freeman & Andreea Waltmann & Moses Laman & Leanne J. Robinson & Azra Ghani & Ivo Mueller, 2018. "Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Zheng, Tingting & Nie, Lin-Fei & Teng, Zhidong & Luo, Yantao, 2020. "Competitive exclusion in a multi-strain malaria transmission model with incubation period," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Tsanou, Berge & Kamgang, Jean C. & Lubuma, Jean M.-S. & Danga, Duplex E. Houpa, 2020. "Modeling pyrethroids repellency and its role on the bifurcation analysis for a bed net malaria model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Abdulaziz Y A Mukhtar & Justin B Munyakazi & Rachid Ouifki & Allan E Clark, 2018. "Modelling the effect of bednet coverage on malaria transmission in South Sudan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, June.
    8. Malik Muhammad Ibrahim & Muhammad Ahmad Kamran & Malik Muhammad Naeem Mannan & Sangil Kim & Il Hyo Jung, 2020. "Impact of Awareness to Control Malaria Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-13, October.
    9. Nwankwo, A., 2021. "Quantifying the impact of insecticide resistance in the transmission dynamics of malaria," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    10. Kar, T.K. & Nandi, Swapan Kumar & Jana, Soovoojeet & Mandal, Manotosh, 2019. "Stability and bifurcation analysis of an epidemic model with the effect of media," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 188-199.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sulaimon F. Abimbade & Furaha M. Chuma & Sunday O. Sangoniyi & Ramoshweu S. Lebelo & Kazeem O. Okosun & Samson Olaniyi, 2024. "Global Dynamics of a Social Hierarchy-Stratified Malaria Model: Insight from Fractional Calculus," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Yuan, Yiran & Li, Ning, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    3. Samson Olaniyi & Olusegun A. Ajala & Sulaimon F. Abimbade, 2023. "Optimal Control Analysis of a Mathematical Model for Recurrent Malaria Dynamics," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Fahad Al Basir & Teklebirhan Abraha, 2023. "Mathematical Modelling and Optimal Control of Malaria Using Awareness-Based Interventions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Sharbayta, Sileshi Sintayehu & Buonomo, Bruno & d'Onofrio, Alberto & Abdi, Tadesse, 2022. "‘Period doubling’ induced by optimal control in a behavioral SIR epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Deng, Yang & He, Daihai & Zhao, Yi, 2024. "The impacts of anti-protective awareness and protective awareness programs on COVID-19 outbreaks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kabir, K.M. Ariful & Tanimoto, Jun, 2019. "Dynamical behaviors for vaccination can suppress infectious disease – A game theoretical approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 229-239.
    2. Zhu, Hongmiao & Jin, Zhen & Yan, Xin, 2023. "A dynamics model of coupling transmission for multiple different knowledge in multiplex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 629(C).
    3. Fahad Al Basir & Teklebirhan Abraha, 2023. "Mathematical Modelling and Optimal Control of Malaria Using Awareness-Based Interventions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-25, March.
    4. Li, Shangge & Jian, Jinfeng & Poopal, Rama Krishnan & Chen, Xinyu & He, Yaqi & Xu, Hongbin & Yu, Huimin & Ren, Zongming, 2022. "Mathematical modeling in behavior responses: The tendency-prediction based on a persistence model on real-time data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    5. Wang, Sheng-Fu & Hu, Lin & Nie, Lin-Fei, 2021. "Global dynamics and optimal control of an age-structure Malaria transmission model with vaccination and relapse," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Zhou, Baoquan & Han, Bingtao & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2021. "Ergodic stationary distribution and extinction of a hybrid stochastic SEQIHR epidemic model with media coverage, quarantine strategies and pre-existing immunity under discrete Markov switching," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 410(C).
    7. Cui, Guang-Hai & Li, Jun-Li & Dong, Kun-Xiang & Jin, Xing & Yang, Hong-Yong & Wang, Zhen, 2024. "Influence of subsidy policies against insurances on controlling the propagation of epidemic security risks in networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    8. Mohammad S Hossain & Robert J Commons & Nicholas M Douglas & Kamala Thriemer & Bereket H Alemayehu & Chanaki Amaratunga & Anupkumar R Anvikar & Elizabeth A Ashley & Puji B S Asih & Verena I Carrara & , 2020. "The risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia after P. falciparum malaria: An individual patient data meta-analysis from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(11), pages 1-26, November.
    9. Mandal, Manotosh & Jana, Soovoojeet & Nandi, Swapan Kumar & Khatua, Anupam & Adak, Sayani & Kar, T.K., 2020. "A model based study on the dynamics of COVID-19: Prediction and control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Kabir, KM Ariful & Kuga, Kazuki & Tanimoto, Jun, 2020. "The impact of information spreading on epidemic vaccination game dynamics in a heterogeneous complex network- A theoretical approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Chen, Xiaolong & Gong, Kai & Wang, Ruijie & Cai, Shimin & Wang, Wei, 2020. "Effects of heterogeneous self-protection awareness on resource-epidemic coevolution dynamics," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 385(C).
    12. Mahmoud A. Ibrahim & Attila Dénes, 2023. "Stability and Threshold Dynamics in a Seasonal Mathematical Model for Measles Outbreaks with Double-Dose Vaccination," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, April.
    13. Yu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Jingmeng & Zhang, Yun & Cong, Xuya & Li, Xiaobo & Mostafa, Almetwally M., 2024. "Mathematical modeling and simulation for COVID-19 with mutant and quarantined strategy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    14. Sang, Chun-Yan & Liao, Shi-Gen, 2020. "Modeling and simulation of information dissemination model considering user’s awareness behavior in mobile social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).
    15. Khan, Tahir & Ullah, Zakir & Ali, Nigar & Zaman, Gul, 2019. "Modeling and control of the hepatitis B virus spreading using an epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-9.
    16. Lacitignola, Deborah & Saccomandi, Giuseppe, 2021. "Managing awareness can avoid hysteresis in disease spread: an application to coronavirus Covid-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Huo, Liang’an & Gu, Jiafeng, 2023. "The influence of individual emotions on the coupled model of unconfirmed information propagation and epidemic spreading in multilayer networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 609(C).
    18. Lu, Chun & Liu, Honghui & Zhang, De, 2021. "Dynamics and simulations of a second order stochastically perturbed SEIQV epidemic model with saturated incidence rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Cui, Guang-Hai & Wang, Zhen & Li, Jun-Li & Jin, Xing & Zhang, Zhi-Wang, 2021. "Influence of precaution and dynamic post-indemnity based insurance policy on controlling the propagation of epidemic security risks in networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    20. Zhang, Mingli & Qin, Simeng & Zhu, Xiaoxia, 2021. "Information diffusion under public crisis in BA scale-free network based on SEIR model — Taking COVID-19 as an example," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:153:y:2021:i:p1:s0960077921008304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.