[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v23y2023i1_2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Per Capita Income Convergence and Divergence of Selected OECD Countries to and from the US: A Reappraisal for the period 1900-2018

Author

Listed:
  • László KÓNYA
Abstract
This paper revisits per capita income convergence (divergence) of 19 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries to (from) the United States between 1900 and 2018 by testing for stochastic convergence and time-series ?-convergence, and a country is meant to converge in the sense of catching-up if it is found to converge in both ways. Given the possibility of structural breaks over the long sample period, first each log differential series is subjected to a multiple breakpoint test and then stochastic convergence is tested with modified SURADF tests and country specific bootstrap critical values on the detrended series. When stochastic convergence is detected, time-series ?-convergence is looked for by comparing the signs of the log differentials to the signs of the slopes of their revealed trends. The results suggest that every country converged stochastically to the United States. However, none of them enjoyed uninterrupted time-series ?-convergence or divergence, they were all catching-up, falling behind or pulling ahead during various periods of time.

Suggested Citation

  • László KÓNYA, 2023. "Per Capita Income Convergence and Divergence of Selected OECD Countries to and from the US: A Reappraisal for the period 1900-2018," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 33-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:23:y:2023:i:1_2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/~economet/reviews/aeid2312.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1754-1792, December.
    2. Mauro Costantini & Amit Sen, 2012. "New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 425-429, March.
    3. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    5. Chortareas, Georgios & Kapetanios, George, 2009. "Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-404, February.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, September.
    8. Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 261-292, October.
    9. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles Wallace, 2002. "Series‐specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 527-546, December.
    10. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    11. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    13. John Dawson & Amit Sen, 2007. "New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 199-230, September.
    14. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
    15. Miguel S. Aubyn, 1999. "Convergence across industrialised countries (1890-1989): new results using time series methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 23-44.
    16. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    17. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    18. Adrian Fleissig & Jack Strauss, 2001. "Panel Unit‐Root Tests of OECD Stochastic Convergence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 153-162, February.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    21. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    22. Roberto Cellini & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Segmented stochastic convergence across the G-7 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 463-474.
    23. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Estimating deterministic trends with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 56-69, July.
    25. repec:bla:obuest:v:64:y:2002:i:5:p:527-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    27. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    28. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    29. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:1:p:153-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Christoph Hanck, 2009. "For which countries did PPP hold? A multiple testing approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 93-103, September.
    31. S. Nahar & B. Inder, 2002. "Testing convergence in economic growth for OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(16), pages 2011-2022.
    32. J. Holmes, Mark, 2002. "Convergence in International Output: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 826-838.
    33. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    34. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    35. Chris Murray & Eric Zivot, 1998. "Inference on Unit Roots and Trend Breaks in Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers UWEC-2005-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    36. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    3. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    4. Martin Wagner, 2008. "On PPP, unit roots and panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 229-249, September.
    5. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    6. Raihan, Selim & Abdullah, S M & Barkat, Aroni & Siddiqua, Salina, 2017. "Mean Reversion of the Real Exchange Rate and the validity of PPP Hypothesis in the context of Bangladesh: A Holistic Approach," MPRA Paper 77172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Are OECD consumption-income ratios stationary after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-117, January.
    8. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Testing Unemployment Persistence in Central and Eastern European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 694-700.
    9. Ogali, Oscar I.O. & Okoro, Emeka E. & Olafuyi, Saburi G., 2023. "Assessing consensus on nexus between natural gas consumption and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Ogbonna, Ephraim A & Furuoka, Fumitaka & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2019. "A new unit root analysis for testing hysteresis in unemployment," MPRA Paper 96621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    12. Natalya Ketenci & Vasudeva N. R. Murthy, 2018. "Some determinants of life expectancy in the United States: results from cointegration tests under structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 508-525, July.
    13. Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Kasim Mansur, 2019. "External Shocks, Structural Breaks And Unemployment Hysteresis In Selected Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 575-600, June.
    14. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2022. "Doubts on natural rate of unemployment: Evidence and policy implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 230-239.
    15. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "Is technology still a major driver of health expenditure in the United States? Evidence from cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 29-50, March.
    16. Skrobotov, Anton, 2020. "Survey on structural breaks and unit root tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 58, pages 96-141.
    17. Bakas, Dimitrios & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2014. "Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 551-562.
    18. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    19. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    20. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2005. "Une synthèse des tests de racine unitaire sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 253-294.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    OECD; Convergence; Income; Structural break; Panel unit root test; Bootstrapping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:23:y:2023:i:1_2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.