[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecr/col070/11588.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The economics of demand-led growth: theory and evidence for Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Costa da Silva, Guilherme Jonas
  • Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José
  • Nabakashi, Luciano
  • Oreiro, José Luis
Abstract
This article describes the theory of demand-led growth and provides evidence that a demand-led growth regime exists in the Brazilian economy. Based on the methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002), econometric tests of this hypothesis show that almost 85% of the growth rate of real GDP in the period 1990-2005 is explained by demand-side variables, mainly exports and government consumption. As the current fiscal crisis rules out fiscal expansion, Brazil's only option is to adopt an export-led growth model. The article also shows that the maintenance of undervalued real exchange rate is a major determinant of export growth in developing countries such as Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Costa da Silva, Guilherme Jonas & Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José & Nabakashi, Luciano & Oreiro, José Luis, 2012. "The economics of demand-led growth: theory and evidence for Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11588
    Note: Includes bibliography
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/11588
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Costa da Silva, Guilherme Jonas & Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José & Nabakashi, Luciano & Oreiro, José Luis, 2012. "The economics of demand-led growth: theory and evidence for Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
    6. Mark Setterfield (ed.), 2002. "The Economics of Demand-Led Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1864.
    7. McCombie, J S L & de Ridder, J R, 1984. ""The Verdoorn Law Controversy": Some New Empirical Evidence Using U.S. State Data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 268-284, June.
    8. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    9. Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda, 2005. "The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the brazilian experience," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 591, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    10. Paulo Gala, 2008. "Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(2), pages 273-288, March.
    11. Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2006. "The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 26(2), pages 231-238.
    12. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    13. J.S.L. McCombie & Mark Roberts, 2002. "The Role of the Balance of Payments in Economic Growth," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), The Economics of Demand-Led Growth, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Mark Setterfield, 1997. "Rapid Growth and Relative Decline," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-37587-1, October.
    15. Giovanni Dosi & Keith Pavitt & Luc Soete, 1990. "The Economics of Technical Change and International Trade," LEM Book Series, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy, number dosietal-1990, November.
    16. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    17. Gilberto A. Libânio, 2009. "Aggregate demand and the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: evidence from Latin American economies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(5), pages 967-984, September.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    19. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabrício J. Missio & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Gustavo Britto & José Luis Oreiro, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 686-714, November.
    2. Christine Carton Madura, 2009. "Mecanismos kaldorianos del crecimiento regional: Aplicación empírica al caso del ALADI (1980-2007)," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 8, pages 1-24, May.
    3. Costa da Silva, Guilherme Jonas & Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José & Nabakashi, Luciano & Oreiro, José Luis, 2012. "The economics of demand-led growth: theory and evidence for Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    4. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    5. Doré, Natalia I. & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2023. "The role of human capital, structural change, and institutional quality on Brazil's economic growth over the last two hundred years (1822–2019)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Cristian Dragos Turcan & Viorel - Costin Banta & Sabin – Alexandru Babeanu, 2021. "Initiation And Planning Of An Information System. A Case Study," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(49), pages 43-48, August.
    7. Guizzo, Danielle & Strachman, Eduardo & Dalto, Fabiano & Feijo, Carmem, 2018. "Financialisation and Development: how can emerging economies catch up?," MPRA Paper 87076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The Endogenous Nature of the ‘Natural’ Rate of Growth," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Yaya Keho, 2011. "Long‐Run Determinants Of Savings Rates In Waemu Countries: An Empirical Assessment From Ardl Bounds Testing Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 312-329, September.
    3. Franco, G.C. & Reisen, V.A. & Alves, F.A., 2013. "Bootstrap tests for fractional integration and cointegration: A comparison study," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 19-29.
    4. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    5. Philip Michael Kargbo, 2012. "Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Sierra Leone: Empirical Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    7. Hirak Ray & Malay Kanti Ray & Joydeep Biswas, 2009. "Bank, Market and Economic Growth," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(2), pages 403-428, July.
    8. Ramazan Sari & Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Income and Education in Turkey: A Multivariate Analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 181-196.
    9. Md. Qamruzzaman & Wei Jianguo & Sharmin Jahan & Zhu Yingjun, 2021. "Financial innovation, human capital development, and economic growth of selected South Asian countries: An application of ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4032-4053, July.
    10. Bee Wah Tan & Chor Foon Tang, 2016. "Examining the Causal Linkages among Domestic Investment, FDI, Trade, Interest Rate and Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 214-220.
    11. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Asma Elmakki, 2018. "The Impact of Domestic Investment in the Industrial Sector on Economic Growth with Partial Openness: Evidence from Tunisia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 111-128.
    12. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2019. "Stock Market And Economic Growth In Vietnam," OSF Preprints de8zq, Center for Open Science.
    13. Mehraj Ahmad Sheikh & Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Rana Zehra Masood, 2020. "Assessing the effects of trade openness on sustainable development: evidence from India," Asian Journal of Sustainability and Social Responsibility, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2014. "A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 370-377.
    15. repec:got:cegedp:76 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Michael KUEHL, 2008. "Strong Comovements of Exchange Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Cases when Currencies Become the Same Asset," EcoMod2008 23800071, EcoMod.
    17. Zahid Mehmood Akhtar & Dr. Faid Gul & Dr. Fauzia Mubarak, 2024. "Economic Growth and Financial Intermediation Nexus in Pakistan: An ARDL Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(1), pages 542-551.
    18. repec:got:cegedp:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. , Aisdl, 2019. "Stock Market And Economic Growth In Vietnam," OSF Preprints ucbhp, Center for Open Science.
    20. Adnan Kasman & Saadet Kirbas-Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Nominal and real convergence between the CEE countries and the EU: a fractional cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2487-2500.
    21. Nyasha Sheilla & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2017. "Bank Versus Stock Market Development in Brazil: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 7-21, April.
    22. Lawrence U. Okoye & Alexander E. Omankhanlen & Johnson I. Okoh & Ngozi B. Adeleye & Felix N. Ezeji & Gideon K. Ezu & Benjamin I. Ehikioya, 2021. "Analyzing the Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 378-387.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11588. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca CEPAL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.