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Globalisation and its implications for inflation in advanced economies

Author

Listed:
  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia
  • Balatti, Mirco
Abstract
The globalisation of inflation hypothesis argues that the factors influencing inflation dynamics are becoming increasingly global. The interest in the global determinants of inflation stems from the observed co-movement of inflation rates across advanced economies (AEs) amid the growing internationalisation of goods, services and financial markets. This article reviews recent inflation developments across AEs and the channels through which globalisation can feed into the more persistent component of inflation. The article finds that three elements of globalisation appear to be linked to a lower persistent inflation: trade integration, informational globalisation and global value chain participation. However, available estimates suggest that this effect is economically small, and the article concludes that globalisation does not appear to be a key determinant of the synchronisation and decline in inflation rates observed across AEs. Looking ahead a reversal (or further slowdown) of globalisation trends could provide only limited tailwinds for inflation trends. JEL Classification: E31, E42, E50, F36, F40, F60

Suggested Citation

  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Balatti, Mirco, 2021. "Globalisation and its implications for inflation in advanced economies," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbart:2021:0004:1
    Note: 930374
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2021/html/ecb.ebart202104_01~ae13f7fe4c.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Valery V. Bezpalov & Sergey A. Lochan & Dmitry V. Fedyunin & Irina V. Polozhentseva & Tatiana V. Gorina, 2022. "Relationship between Complex Integration Indices and Inflation Indicators and Their Impact on the Development of Regional Cooperation between Countries to Reduce the Level of Inflationary Risks: Case ," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
    2. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    3. Anh D. M. Nguyen & Hajime Takizawa & Iglika Vassileva, 2023. "Inflation Dynamics in Bulgaria: The Role of Policies," IMF Working Papers 2023/212, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; international integration; monetary regimes; open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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