[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2016-04-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic approach to investigating the foreign exchange forward premium volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Nessrine Hamzaoui

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Tunis, Tunisia)

  • Boutheina Regaieg

    (Faculty of Law, Economics and Management of Jendouba, Tunisia.)

Abstract
This paper empirically investigates the volatility dynamics of the EUR/USD forward premium via generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH-M) (1,1) and Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle (GJR)-GARCH (1,1) and GJR-GARCH (1,1)-M models. Our empirical analysis is based on daily data related to the EUR/USD forward premiums. Our daily analysis reveals several results. Firstly, we confirm that the 9 month and 1 year forward premiums are explained in large part by their conditional variances. Secondly, according to the theoretical predictions of the asymmetric framework, we show that the conditional variances equations exhibit an asymmetry in the dynamics of the conditional variance only for the 9 months and 12 months horizons. Thirdly, for the 6 month, 9 month and 12 month forward premiums; the GJR-GARCH in mean effect is totally absent

Suggested Citation

  • Nessrine Hamzaoui & Boutheina Regaieg, 2016. "The Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic approach to investigating the foreign exchange forward premium volatility," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1608-1615.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-04-42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/2740/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/2740/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Poonawala, Jumana, 2010. "The forward market in emerging currencies: Less biased than in major currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 585-598, April.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
    4. Ding, Liang, 2012. "The Thursday effect of the forward premium puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 302-318.
    5. Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen, 1982. "Spot and forward rates in a stochastic model of the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 313-331, May.
    6. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    7. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
    8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    9. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    10. Zhou, Su & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Does the forward premium anomaly depend on the sample period used or on the sign of the premium?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 17-25.
    11. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2016. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1183, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    14. Bekaert, Geert, 1996. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 427-470.
    15. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "Tacit On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 09.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    16. Neil Kellard & Paul Newbold & Tony Rayner, 2001. "Evaluating currency market efficiency: are cointegration tests appropriate?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 681-691.
    17. Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1686-1706, November.
    18. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    19. Tiff Macklem, R., 1991. "Forward exchange rates and risk premiums in artificial economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 365-391, September.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November.
    21. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Ilias Tsiakas, 2009. "An Economic Evaluation of Empirical Exchange Rate Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3491-3530, September.
    22. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    23. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    24. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
    25. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    26. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October.
    27. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, February.
    28. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    29. Hagiwara, May & Herce, Miguel A, 1999. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Volatility, Trading Volume and Interest Rate Differentials in a Model of Portfolio Selection," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 202-218, May.
    30. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    31. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2010. "Confidence Risk and Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 537-541, May.
    32. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
    33. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
    34. Mr. Guy M Meredith & Yue Ma, 2002. "The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2002/028, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1993. "Profits, risk, and uncertainty in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 259-286, November.
    36. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    37. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    38. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    39. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hugo Inzirillo & Ludovic De Villelongue, 2022. "An Attention Free Long Short-Term Memory for Time Series Forecasting," Papers 2209.09548, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
    2. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    4. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
    5. De Paoli, Bianca & Sondergaard, Jens, 2009. "Foreign exchange rate risk in a small open economy," Bank of England working papers 365, Bank of England.
    6. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    7. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(3), pages 851-878.
    8. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
    9. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    10. Tarek A Hassan & Rui C Mano, 2019. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 397-450.
    11. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2014. "Time variation in the standard forward premium regression: Some new models and tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-63.
    12. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    13. Baillie, Richard T. & Kim, Kun Ho, 2015. "Was it risk? Or was it fundamentals? Explaining excess currency returns with kernel smoothed regressions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 99-111.
    14. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2010. "Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1170, October.
    16. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Liu, Guangqiang, 2020. "Predicting exchange rate returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    17. Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
    18. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    19. Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.
    20. Burton Hollifield & Armir Yaron, "undated". "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional Volatility; Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic; Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity; Volatility Persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-04-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.