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An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses

Author

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  • Øystein Kravdal

    (Universitetet i Oslo)

Abstract
When assessing the importance of education for fertility, one should ideally use complete education histories. Unfortunately, such data are often not available. It is illustrated here, using register data for Norwegian women born in 1969, that inclusion of educational level at the latest age observed (28), rather than at the current age, can give substantially biased education effect estimates. It is also illustrated that imputation of education for earlier ages may lead to wrong conclusions. A simple imputation of educational level and enrolment based on the assumption that everyone passes through the educational system with the officially stipulated progress gives particularly misleading results. Somewhat better estimates are obtained when a slower progress more in accordance with reality is assumed, or when educational level and enrolment are imputed stochastically on the basis of distributions calculated from real data. Obviously, one should be very careful when faced with incomplete education histories, and try to make use of relevant information from other sources about the actual educational careers.

Suggested Citation

  • Øystein Kravdal, 2004. "An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(6), pages 135-154.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:6
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.6
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    1. Øystein Kravdal, 2001. "The High Fertility of College Educated Women in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(6), pages 187-216.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kryštof Zeman, 2018. "Cohort fertility and educational expansion in the Czech Republic during the 20th century," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(56), pages 1699-1732.
    2. Thomas Baudin, 2015. "Religion and fertility: The French connection," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(13), pages 397-420.
    3. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Luule Sakkeus, 2014. "Varying association between education and second births in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(27), pages 813-860.
    4. Ester Lazzari, 2021. "Changing trends between education, childlessness and completed fertility: a cohort analysis of Australian women born in 1952–1971," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 417-441, December.
    5. Roberto Impicciatore & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, 2017. "The impact of education on fertility in Italy. Changes across cohorts and south–north differences," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 2293-2317, September.
    6. Øystein Kravdal, 2007. "Effects of current education on second- and third-birth rates among Norwegian women and men born in 1964: Substantive interpretations and methodological issues," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(9), pages 211-246.
    7. Marit Rønsen, 2004. "Fertility and family policy in Norway - A reflection on trends and possible connections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 10(10), pages 265-286.
    8. Cornelia Mureşan, 2007. "Educational attainment and second births in Romania," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-028, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Thea van Roode & Katrina Sharples & Nigel Dickson & Charlotte Paul, 2017. "Life-Course Relationship between Socioeconomic Circumstances and Timing of First Birth in a Birth Cohort," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Cornelia Muresan & Jan M. Hoem, 2010. "The negative educational gradients in Romanian fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(4), pages 95-114.
    11. Cornelia Muresan & Paul-Teodor Hărăguş & Mihaela Hărăguş & Christin Schröder, 2008. "Romania: Childbearing metamorphosis within a changing context," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(23), pages 855-906.
    12. Marika Jalovaara & Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Peter Fallesen & Trude Lappegård, 2019. "Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 563-586, July.
    13. Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Johan Koskinen, 2009. "Bayesian Adjustment of Anticipatory Covariates in Analyzing Retrospective Data," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 105-130.
    14. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & ÉVa Beaujouan, 2013. "Education and Cohabitation in Britain: A Return to Traditional Patterns?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 441-458, September.
    15. Trude Lappegård & Marit Rønsen, 2005. "The Multifaceted Impact of Education on Entry into Motherhood," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 31-49, March.
    16. Cordula Zabel, 2009. "Do imputed education histories provide satisfactory results in fertility analysis in the Western German context?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(6), pages 135-176.
    17. Jan M. Hoem & Michaela R. Kreyenfeld, 2006. "Anticipatory analysis and its alternatives in life-course research. Part 1: Education and first childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Kryštof Zeman, 2007. "Transition of nuptiality and fertility onset in the Czech Republic since the 1990s: the role of women’s education and its expansion," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-017, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    19. Jan M. Hoem & Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson, 2006. "Education and childlessness," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(15), pages 331-380.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; birth rate; education; Norway; registry files; registry data; endogenous; enrolment; imputation; simultaneous models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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