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Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment

Author

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  • Elke Loichinger

    (Statistisches Bundesamt)

Abstract
Background: One expected consequence of population aging in Europe is the shrinkage of the labor force. Most existing labor force projections allow only inferences about the size and age structure of the future labor force. Objective: In comparison to existing labor force projections, which disaggregate only by age and sex, these projections include information about the highest level of educational attainment (tertiary vs. non-tertiary education), so that an additional level of heterogeneity in labor force participation is considered. This heterogeneity enters the projection methodology through population projection data as well as labor force participation data, since both components are decomposed in the three dimensions of age, sex, and education. Based on data from the European Labor Force Survey (EU LFS), three scenarios were designed to project the economically active population for 26 EU countries up to 2053. Results: Adding the educational dimension to labor force projections discloses a significant shift towards tertiary education degrees between 2008 and 2053. This educational upgrading of the European labor force is not driven by developments in a few large countries but can be expected to take place in each of the 26 analyzed countries. Conclusions: A better educated but shrinking labor force is likely to be able to alleviate some of the anticipated economic consequences of population aging. The presented projections of education-specific labor supply can serve as inputs into forecasts of economic growth that include educational differentials in labor productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Elke Loichinger, 2015. "Labor force projections up to 2053 for 26 EU countries, by age, sex, and highest level of educational attainment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(15), pages 443-486.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:32:y:2015:i:15
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Sonja Spitzer & Daniela Weber, 2019. "Reporting biases in self-assessed physical and cognitive health status of older Europeans," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Alexia Prskawetz & Bernhard Hammer, 2018. "Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 111-134.
    5. Yen-hsin Alice Cheng & Elke Loichinger, 2017. "The Future Labor Force of an Aging Taiwan: The Importance of Education and Female Labor Supply," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(3), pages 441-466, June.
    6. Guillaume Marois & Patrick Sabourin & Alain Bélanger, 2020. "Implementing Dynamics of Immigration Integration in Labor Force Participation Projection in EU28," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 339-363, April.
    7. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2015. "A Simulation Analysis of the Longer-Term Effects of Immigration on Per Capita Income in an Aging Population," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-14, McMaster University.
    8. Daniela Weber & Elke Loichinger, 2022. "Live longer, retire later? Developments of healthy life expectancies and working life expectancies between age 50–59 and age 60–69 in Europe," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 75-93, March.
    9. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Ferreira, Matheus L.A., 2018. "The Evolution of the Elderly Labor Force Participation and Retirement in Brazil," OSF Preprints db54h, Center for Open Science.
    10. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Loichinger, Elke & Vincelette, Gallina A., 2016. "Aging and income convergence in Europe: A survey of the literature and insights from a demographic projection exercise," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 4-17.
    11. Guillaume Marois & Ekaterina Zhelenkova & Balhasan Ali, 2022. "Labour Force Projections in India Until 2060 and Implications for the Demographic Dividend," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 477-497, November.
    12. Amer Ahmed & Maurizio Bussolo & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2020. "Global Inequality in a more educated world," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(4), pages 585-616, December.
    13. Elke Loichinger & Alexia Prskawetz, 2017. "Changes in economic activity: The role of age and education," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(40), pages 1185-1208.
    14. Rentería, Elisenda & Souto, Guadalupe & Istenič, Tanja & Sambt, Jože, 2024. "Generational economic dependency in aging Europe: Contribution of education and population changes," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    15. Samuel Vézina & Alain Bélanger, 2019. "Impacts of education and immigration on the size and skills of the future workforce," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(12), pages 331-366.
    16. Ukaj MIC & Mustafa Topxhiu RAHMIJE, 2019. "The returns to investment in education: Some theoretical and empirical insights," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 193-203.
    17. Guillaume Marois & Michaela Potancokova & Miguel Gonzalez-Leonardo, 2023. "Demographic and labor force impacts of future immigration flows into Europe: does an immigrant’s region of origin matter?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Kelin, Ema & Istenič, Tanja & Sambt, Jože, 2023. "The role of educational attainment in production and transfers in the form of unpaid household work," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    19. Guillaume MAROIS & Patrick SABOURIN & Alain BÉLANGER, 2019. "Forecasting Human Capital of EU Member Countries Accounting for Sociocultural Determinants," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 231-269, September.
    20. Rocha de Jesus Fernandes, Anderson & Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo, 2024. "Aging, education and some other implications for the silver dividend in developing countries: Evidence from Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Europe; human capital; labor force projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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