[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dah/aeqaeq/v62_y2016_i3_q3_p169-186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asset Prices and Consumer Prices: Exploring the Linkages

Author

Listed:
  • Dieter Gerdesmeier
  • Hans-Eggert Reimers
  • Barbara Roffia
Abstract
It is a well-established fact in monetary economics that money and credit developments may affect consumer price inflation directly as well as indirectly via changes in asset prices, while at the same time asset price fluctuations can independently affect monetary and real developments. This has led to proposals to assign a more prominent role to asset prices in central bank’s toolkit of leading indicators for future developments in consumer price inflation. In this study, we examine, in the context of reduced-form inflation equations, the importance of different variables (including standard explanatory variables) as well as some specific asset price variables (i.e., the changes in housing and equity prices, a yield spread and oil prices). Against this background, we make use of a panel approach, covering data for 17 industrialised countries and the euro area. Three main results emerge out of our analysis. First, a standard framework explaining current inflation by (lagged) developments in inflation, the output gap, short-term interest rates, oil prices, house and stock prices and the exchange rate seems to perform quite well, although the explanatory power of the equations decreases with the length of the time horizon. Second, as regards the role of asset prices, it can be shown that house price movements seem to provide more useful information on future consumer price developments than movements in equity prices. Finally, the results of the analysis show that broad monetary developments become more relevant as the time horizon lengthens. By contrast, equity prices and the yield spread seem to be somewhat less informative.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2016. "Asset Prices and Consumer Prices: Exploring the Linkages," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(3), pages 169-186.
    • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqaeq:v62_y2016_i3_q3_p169-186
    DOI: 10.3790/aeq.62.3.169
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/aeq.62.3.169
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers (2008 onwards); Pay-per-view access from https://elibrary.duncker-humblot.com/journals/aeq (2008 onwards) and http://www.genios.de (2008 onwards)
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3790/aeq.62.3.169?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Eika, Kari H & Ericsson, Neil R & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 765-790, November.
    4. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    6. Fredrik NG Andersson, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Asset Price Inflation and Consumer Price Inflation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 759-770.
    7. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
    8. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    10. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2000. "Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consumer Price Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(s1), pages 122-140.
    11. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    12. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    13. Peeters, Marga, 1999. "Measuring monetary conditions in Europe: Use and limitations of the monetary conditions index," MPRA Paper 23534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, January.
    15. Jansen, W. Jos & Nahuis, Niek J., 2003. "The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 89-98, April.
    16. Gabe J. de Bondt, 2000. "Financial Structure and Monetary Transmission in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2015.
    17. repec:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:0:p:122-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
    19. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gerdesmeier Dieter & Roffia Barbara & Reimers Hans-Eggert, 2020. "Unravelling the Secrets of Inflation in the Euro Area – A Frequency Decomposition Approach," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 133-162, June.
    2. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2018. "Unravelling the secrets of euro area inflation: A frequency decomposition approach," Wismar Discussion Papers 06/2018, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. G. Peersman & W. Wagner, 2014. "Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/874, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Calza Alessandro & Sousa João, 2006. "Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2015. "Consumer and asset prices: Some recent evidence," Wismar Discussion Papers 01/2015, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.
    4. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, 2015. "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002, October.
    5. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "“In the Short Run Blasé, In the Long Run Risqué”," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 18(3), pages 181-226, August.
    6. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    7. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, Joao, 2006. "Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-226, May.
    8. Kinkyo, Takuji, 2007. "Explaining Korea's Lower Investment Levels After the Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1120-1133, July.
    9. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    10. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    12. Gabriel A. Giménez Roche, 2016. "Entrepreneurial ignition of the business cycle: The corporate finance of malinvestment," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 253-276, September.
    13. Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2010. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: a nonlinear approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1099-1112.
    14. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    15. Hans Gersbach & Jean-Charles Rochet & Martin Scheffel, 2016. "Taking Banks to Solow," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Martin Guzman (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Macroeconomics, chapter 13, pages 176-198, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Queijo, Virginia, 2005. "How Important are Financial Frictions in the U.S. and Euro Area?," Seminar Papers 738, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    17. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    18. Krainer, Robert E., 2013. "Towards a program for financial stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 207-218.
    19. Falagiarda, Matteo & Saia, Alessandro, 2017. "Credit, Endogenous Collateral and Risky Assets: A DSGE Model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 125-148.
    20. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dah:aeqaeq:v62_y2016_i3_q3_p169-186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: E-Publishing-Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.duncker-humblot.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.