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The World Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Anderton, R.
  • Barrell, R.
  • in't Veld, JW
Abstract
There are signs that the slowdown in major seven growth may be coming to an end in the first and second quarters of 1992. The provisional first quarter data for the US indicated that growth had been slightly stronger than we had anticipated. However there are signs of continued weakness in the Japanese economy, and output growth throughout Europe has been below capacity. We are not expecting a sharp upturn in world activity, and we do not expect capacity utilisation rates to rise substantially in the near future. Chart 1 plots past data and our forecast of output growth in the major four economies. We believe that the last quarter of 1991 was the trough of the downturn in the US, Japan and Germany, and that growth will be higher in 1992 in the US and Canada than it was in 1991. Table 1 gives a summary of our forecast. The slow improvement in capacity utilisation that is shown in chart 2 is a major factor behind the rather optimistic outlook for inflation. Inflation is expected to fall in all of the major economies in 1992, and to rise only very slightly in Japan and Canada in 1993.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderton, R. & Barrell, R. & in't Veld, JW, 1992. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 140, pages 26-44, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:140:y:1992:i::p:26-44_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Studer, Roman, 2008. "India and the Great Divergence: Assessing the Efficiency of Grain Markets in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century India," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 393-437, June.
    2. José M. Albert & Marta R. Casanova & Jorge Mateu & Vicente Orts, 2013. "Distance-Based Methods: An improvement of Ripley’s K function vs. the K density function," Working Papers 2013/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela & Latorre, María C., 2020. "A short- and long-term general equilibrium analysis of the impact of Brexit," Conference papers 333192, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Anja Shortland & Sourafel Girma, 2005. "The Political Economy of Financial Liberalisation," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 39, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Adapting to Regime Change," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 10-36, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. J nos Kollo, 2013. "Patterns of Integration: Low Educated People and their Jobs in Norway, Italy and Hungary," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1315, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    8. Geomina Turlea & Cezar Mereuta, 2002. "Markets and networks in Romania - life after disorganisation," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 15, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    9. FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Overall Macroeconomic Assessment," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 6, pages 143-169, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Diallo Mamadou Saliou Kokouma & Kaning Xu, 2013. "Attracting Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Africa: Determinants and Policies - The Case of Guinea," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 52-71, October.
    11. Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Tourism Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 11, pages 321-338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28.
    13. Bulent Esiyok, 2015. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Increase Imports To Turkey? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 23-35, June.
    14. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Shigeru Otsubo*Masahiko Tsutsumi, 1996. "Is the"Japan Problem"real? How problems in Japan's financial sector could affect developing regions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1682, The World Bank.
    16. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Macroeconomy in Stable Conditions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 50-86, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Köllő, János, 2013. "Patterns of Integration: Low Educated People and their Jobs in Norway, Italy and Hungary," IZA Discussion Papers 7632, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Palmer, Edward, 2001. "The New Swedish Pension System," Discussion Paper 36, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kavanagh, Ella & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Macroeconomic Response to Shocks," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 5, pages 105-142, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Baker, Terence J. & Duffy, David & Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Manufacturing Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 7, pages 174-221, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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