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Stabilization Policy As Bifurcation Selection: Would Stabilization Policy Work If The Economy Really Were Unstable?

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  • Barnett, William A.
  • He, Yijun
Abstract
Taken literally, the concept of “stabilization policy” implicitly assumes that the macroeconomy is unstable without imposition of a policy. Hence, selection of a “stabilization policy” can be viewed as selection of a policy to bifurcate the system from an unstable to a stable operating regime. The literature on dynamics of high-dimensional systems suggests that successful bifurcation selection is challenging. As an experiment to investigate this point of view, we use the continuous-time UK dynamic macroeconometric model. Under assumptions designed to be most favorable to stabilization policy, we find that policies that would produce successful bifurcation are very complicated. We also find that less complicated policies based upon reasonable economic intuition can be counterproductive, since such policies can contract the size of the stable subset of the parameter space. In fact, an economy that is dynamically stable without policy, but subject to stochastic shocks, could be bifurcated to instability with imposition of a poorly designed “stabilization” policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnett, William A. & He, Yijun, 2002. "Stabilization Policy As Bifurcation Selection: Would Stabilization Policy Work If The Economy Really Were Unstable?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 713-747, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:05:p:713-747_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Barnett William A & Dalkir Mehmet S, 2007. "Gains from Synchronization," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Banerjee, Sanjibani & A. Barnett, William & A. Duzhak, Evgeniya & Gopalan, Ramu, 2011. "Bifurcation analysis of Zellner's Marshallian Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1577-1585, September.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2016. "An Analytical And Numerical Search For Bifurcations In Open Economy New Keynesian Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 482-503, March.
    4. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya, 2013. "Bifurcation analysis of an endogenous growth model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-64.
    5. William Barnett & Yijun He, 2006. "Existence of Bifurcation in Macroeconomic Dynamics: Grandmont was Right," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200610, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    6. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna, 2008. "Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3817-3825.
    7. Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2013. "Hopf bifurcation in the Clarida, Gali, and Gertler model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 401-404.
    8. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Commentary on \\"Monetary policy as equilibrium selection\\"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 89(Jul), pages 343-348.
    9. Barnett, William A., 2006. "Comments on "Chaotic monetary dynamics with confidence"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 253-255, March.
    10. He, Yijun & Barnett, William A., 2006. "Singularity bifurcations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 5-22, March.
    11. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2019. "Structural Stability Of The Generalized Taylor Rule," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1664-1678, June.
    12. Barnett, William A. & He, Susan, 2010. "Existence of singularity bifurcation in an Euler-equations model of the United States economy: Grandmont was right," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1345-1354, November.
    13. Moosavi Mohseni, Reza & Kilicman, Adem, 2014. "Hopf bifurcation in an open monetary economic system: Taylor versus inflation targeting rules," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 8-12.
    14. Wymer Clifford R., 2012. "Continuous-Tme Econometrics of Structural Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, April.
    15. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
    16. William A. Barnett & Taniya Ghosh, 2014. "Stability analysis of Uzawa–Lucas endogenous growth model," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(1), pages 33-44, April.
    17. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Johannes Kaiser & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen Hagen, 2012. "Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 13-51, March.
    18. William Barnett & Barry E. Jones & Milka Kirova & Travis D. Nesmith & Meenakshi Pasupathy1, 2004. "The Nonlinear Skeletons in the Closet," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200403, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised May 2004.
    19. William A. Barnett & Yijun He, 2002. "Bifurcations in Macroeconomic Models," Macroeconomics 0210006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination: A Model of the Decisive Role of Central Bank Cooperation and Conflict," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 18/2007, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    21. Mohd Naim Bin Mohd Johari & Adem Kilicman, 2017. "Hopf bifurcation in an open monetary economic system: Taylor vs. inflation targeting rules (Malaysian case)," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1327184-132, January.

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