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Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy

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  • Houle, Christian
  • Kayser, Mark A.
  • Xiang, Jun
Abstract
Scholars, observing clustering in transitions to democracy, argue that democratization diffuses across borders as citizens in autocracies demand the same reforms they witness in neighboring states. We disagree. This article demonstrates that diffusion plays only a highly conditional role in democratization. We advance and test an alternative two-step theory of clustered democratization: (1) economic and international political shocks, which are clustered spatially and temporally, induce the breakdown of authoritarian regimes; then (2) democratic diffusion, in turn, influences whether a fallen dictatorship will be replaced by a democracy or a new autocracy. Diffusion, despite playing an important role, is insufficient to explain the clustering of transitions. Using data on 125 autocracies from 1875 to 2004, we show that economic crises trigger authoritarian breakdowns, while diffusion influences whether the new regime is democratic or authoritarian.

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  • Houle, Christian & Kayser, Mark A. & Xiang, Jun, 2016. "Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 687-726, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:70:y:2016:i:04:p:687-726_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Gala, Vito D. & Pagliardi, Giovanni & Zenios, Stavros A., 2023. "Global political risk and international stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-102.
    2. Christian Houle & Mark A. Kayser, 2019. "The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(10), pages 2421-2437, November.
    3. Janus, Thorsten, 2023. "Short and long run democracy diffusion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Kabwe Omoyi Fanny, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Political Regime Type in African Sub-Regions," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(2), pages 153-165, June.
    5. Dawn Brancati & Adrián Lucardi, 2019. "Why Democracy Protests Do Not Diffuse," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(10), pages 2354-2389, November.
    6. Campedelli, Gian Maria & D'Orsogna, Maria Rita, 2021. "Temporal Clustering of Disorder Events During the COVID-19 Pandemic," OSF Preprints fuhqw, Center for Open Science.
    7. Gian Maria Campedelli & Maria Rita D'Orsogna, 2021. "Temporal Clustering of Disorder Events During the COVID-19 Pandemic," Papers 2101.06458, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.

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