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Debt, deficits, and crowding out: England, 1727–1840

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  • CLARK, GREGORY
Abstract
By the 1820s, as a result of the protracted struggle with France, the market value of the British Government debt was twice British GDP. It has been argued that this debt represented a huge institutional failure by the government, significantly slowing growth in the Industrial Revolution period by crowding out private investment. This article constructs measures of private rates of return in the years 1725–1839 and shows these imply that neither the government deficits nor the mounting debt are associated with much higher private rates of return on capital. The reason the government could issue so much debt without raising rates of return is unclear. One possibility is that crowding out was occurring, but population growth in 1770–1839 was reducing rental income as a fraction of GDP, creating a demand for other asset income so that we do not observe tightness in capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Clark, Gregory, 2001. "Debt, deficits, and crowding out: England, 1727–1840," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 403-436, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:ereveh:v:5:y:2001:i:03:p:403-436_00
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    2. Anson, Michael & Bennett, Michael D., 2022. "The collection of slavery compensation, 1835-43," Bank of England working papers 1006, Bank of England.
    3. Temin, Peter & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2005. "Credit rationing and crowding out during the industrial revolution: evidence from Hoare's Bank, 1702-1862," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 325-348, July.
    4. Daudin, Guillaume, 2004. "Profitability of Slave and Long-Distance Trading in Context: The Case of Eighteenth-Century France," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 144-171, March.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/687 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Patrick K. O'Brien & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: The Bank of England and the British economy, 1694–1844," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 305-329, February.
    7. Michael Bar & Oksana Leukhina, 2010. "Demographic Transition and Industrial Revolution: A Macroeconomic Investigation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 424-451, April.
    8. Patrick K. O’Brien & Nuno Palma, 2019. "Danger To The Old Lady Of Threadneedle Street? The Bank Restriction Act And The Regime Shift To Paper Money, 1797-18211," Working Papers 0082, Utrecht University, Centre for Global Economic History.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/687 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Shingo Watanabe, 2019. "What Do British Historical Data Tell Us About Government Spending Multipliers?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1141-1162, April.
    11. Mikael Priks, 2005. "Optimal Rent Extraction in Pre-Industrial England and France – Default Risk and Monitoring Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1464, CESifo.
    12. Voth, Joachim, 2005. "Credit Rationing and Crowding Out During the Industrial Revolution," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4qw3v8q6, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/687 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Stephen Broadberry & Bishnupriya Gupta, 2009. "Lancashire, India, and shifting competitive advantage in cotton textiles, 1700–1850: the neglected role of factor prices1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 62(2), pages 279-305, May.
    15. Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez & Gabriel Mathy, 2024. "The World's First Global Safe Asset: British Public Debt, 1718-1913," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2024-01er:dp2024-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    16. Geloso, Vincent J. & Salter, Alexander W., 2020. "State capacity and economic development: Causal mechanism or correlative filter?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 372-385.
    17. Stephen Quinn, 2008. "Securitization of Sovereign Debt: Corporations as a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism in Britain, 1694-1750," Working Papers 200701, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
    18. David R Stead, "undated". "Fixed Rent Contracts in English Agriculture, 1750-1850: A Conjecture," Discussion Papers 05/01, Department of Economics, University of York.
    19. David R. Green & Alastair Owens, 2003. "Gentlewomanly capitalism? Spinsters, widows, and wealth holding in England and Wales, c. 1800–1860," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 56(3), pages 510-536, August.

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