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Impacts of an African Swine Fever Outbreak on Ontario’s Pork Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Scott Biden
  • Alan P. Ker
  • Stephen Duff
Abstract
IAfrican swine fever (ASF), a highly contagious disease affecting domestic and wild pigs, has been spreading globally, with devastating impacts on hog markets. The European Union saw pork exports decrease by €556 million (9%) as a result of ASF outbreaks across four countries in 2014. Similarly, in 2018, when ASF was first reported in China, there was a 30% decrease in the Chinese pig inventory and in total pork production. ASF’s eventual spread to North America seems inevitable. Given Canada’s export-oriented pork industry, the economic costs and animal welfare impacts of an ASF outbreak in the Canadian hog sector could prove devastating as a result of potential border closures and large-scale animal depopulation. To estimate the impacts, we build a partial equilibrium, vertically integrated model of Ontario’s pork industry from the breeding herd through to end consumer. If an outbreak occurred in a central production region of Ontario, we estimate that Ontario’s pork industry would experience a welfare loss of C$860 million (28.1%). Conversely, if an outbreak occurred in Western Canada, the Ontario pork industry would benefit by C$198 million (6.5%). Not surprisingly, an outbreak will redistribute signifi cant economic rents in the sector depending on where exactly the fi rst outbreak occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Biden & Alan P. Ker & Stephen Duff, 2022. "Impacts of an African Swine Fever Outbreak on Ontario’s Pork Industry," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 48(1), pages 11-35, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:48:y:2022:i:1:p:11-35
    DOI: 10.3138/cpp.2021-042
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    Cited by:

    1. Biden, Scott & Ker, Alan P. & Larue, Bruno & Duff, Stephen, 2024. "Economic impacts of a disease outbreak in Canada’s pork industry: Case of a price-taking, open country," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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