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La industria colombiana en el siglo XXI

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Esteban Carranza
  • Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas
  • Camila Casas
  • Alejandra Ximena Gonzalez-Ramirez
  • Stefany Moreno-Burbano
  • Fernando Arias-Rodríguez
  • Juan Sebastián Vélez-Velásquez
Abstract
¿Qué factores determinaron el desempeno de las firmas manufactureras colombianas desde 2000? Este análisis está informado por un entendimiento teórico de los mecanismos que determinan el comportamiento de las firmas. En el análisis macroeconómico, encontramos que ni la tasa de cambio ni la demanda externa explican el grueso de la variación en la producción industrial agregada. La variable agregada que explica mejor las fluctuaciones de la producción industrial es una variable no observada que interpretamos como un choque de demanda interna. Basados en el análisis microeconométrico, encontramos que son las grandes diferencias en productividad las que explican las diferencias en el desempeno de las firmas industriales. También encontramos que las firmas con mejor desempeno son las que comercian más con el resto del mundo. Así mismo, la probabilidad de supervivencia de las firmas está correlacionada de forma inversa y significativa con la tasa de tributación sobre las utilidades de las firmas. Constatamos que hay oportunidades de mejoramiento de la capacidad productiva de la industria en el cierre de las brechas de productividad entre firmas, en su exposición al comercio exterior y su tributación. Este tipo de evidencia sirve de base para políticas públicas efectivas en la promoción de la actividad industria. ****** Which factors were determinant in the performance of Colombian manufacturing firms since 2000? This analysis is based on a deep understanding of the theoretical mechanisms that underline firms’ behavior. The macroeconomic analysis concludes that most of the variation in aggregate industrial production is not explained neither by the exchange rate nor by the external demand. The aggregate variable that explains most of the variation in industrial output is an unobservable variable that we interpret as a demand shock. The microeconometric analysis allow us to conclude that differences in their productivity explains most of the differences in performance among industrial firms. Additionally, we show that firms with higher international trade are the ones with better outcomes. Likewise, firms’ survival probability is significantly negatively correlated with the tax rate on their profits. Our analysis indicates that there are opportunities for improving industry’s productive capacity by reducing their productivity differences, by increasing international trade, and by improving the tax code. This evidence is useful for formulating public policies that effectively promotes industrial activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Esteban Carranza & Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas & Camila Casas & Alejandra Ximena Gonzalez-Ramirez & Stefany Moreno-Burbano & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Juan Sebastián Vélez-Velásquez, 2018. "La industria colombiana en el siglo XXI," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 87, pages 1-69, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:016950
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Alberto Restrepo Rivillas & Edna Carolina Sastoque Ramírez & Isidro Hernández Rodríguez, 2021. "Proceso de Industrialización en colombia. Desempeño y condiciones institucionales," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Administración de Empresas, number 56, August.
    2. Gorlin, Yury & Maleva, Tatyana & Nazarov, Vladimir & Grishina, Elena & Fedorov, Valery & Kirillova, M., "undated". "Development of Pension Formula for Calculation of Solidary Part Based on Stimulation to Later Retirement," Published Papers nvg178, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    3. Juan Esteban Carranza & Camila Casas & Alejandra Ximena González-Ramírez, 2020. "The Colombian peso depreciation of 2014-2015 and the adjustment of trade in the manufacturing sector," Borradores de Economia 1125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. María Angélica Arbeláez & Alejandro Becerra & Miguel Benítez, 2021. "Contribución fiscal y tributación efectiva de la industria manufacturera en Colombia," Informes de Investigación 19143, Fedesarrollo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industria manufacturera; Colombia; tasa de cambio; demanda externa; demanda interna; aranceles; impuestos; productividad; comercio exterior; tributación; apalancamiento; industry; Colombia; Exchange rate; external demand; domestic demand; tariffs; taxes; productivity; international trade; tax code; leverage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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