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Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Klaus Wohlrabe
Abstract
Das ifo Geschäftsklima ist ein viel beachteter Indikator für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung in Deutschland. Es ist daher auch immer wieder Gegenstand von wissenschaftlichen Analysen, in denen verschiedene Eigenschaften des Geschäftsklimas untersucht werden. Im Zentrum des Interesses steht dabei häufig die Verwendung des Indikators zu Prognosezwecken. So widmet etwa der Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in seinem Jahresgutachten 2006/2007 dem ifo Geschäftsklima einen Abschnitt. Der vorliegende Aufsatz stellt einen kurzen Literaturüberblick über die wissenschaftlichen Aufsätze der letzten Jahre dar, die sich mit der Prognosequalität des ifo Geschäftsklimas beschäftigt haben. Ein Blick in die wissenschaftliche Literatur zeigt, dass die verwendeten Methoden und Referenzreihen sich durchaus unterscheiden. Je nach Untersuchungsanordnung fällt die Bewertung eines Indikators unterschiedlich aus. Zum ifo Geschäftsklima existiert eine Vielzahl von wissenschaftlichen Untersuchungen, die zeigen, dass dieser Indikator für viele Problemfelder der Konjunkturanalyse gewinnbringend eingesetzt werden kann. Diese Vielseitigkeit gepaart mit dem transparenten Konstruktionsprinzip sind sicherlich wesentliche Gründe für die Popularität des Geschäftsklimas. Man sollte jedoch bei der Verallgemeinerung einzelner Studienergebnisse nicht vergessen, dass jede einzelne Untersuchung sich auf ein relativ enges Studiendesign beschränkt, und sollte deshalb nicht aus jeder einzelnen Analyse auf die generelle "Prognosefähigkeit" der Indikatoren schließen.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:59:y:2006:i:22:p:19-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), 2005. "Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis," Contributions to Economics, Springer, number 978-3-7908-1605-1, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prognose; Konjunkturindikator; Prognoseverfahren;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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