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Keeping the Hitter Off Balance: Mixed Strategies in Baseball

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  • Weinstein-Gould Jesse

    (Stanford University)

Abstract
Mixed strategies are a key component of game theory. Investigations into whether or not people use optimal mixed strategies have largely been limited to laboratory settings and have produced mixed results. Recently, the empirical framework has been extended into professional sports. This study uses pitch-level data from Major League Baseball games to see if pitchers mix their pitches optimally. The scope of this study is limited to the first pitch of a plate appearance and finds that pitchers are mixing optimally to have success on the first pitch of the plate appearance, but the null hypothesis of optimal play for the plate appearance outcome is rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Weinstein-Gould Jesse, 2009. "Keeping the Hitter Off Balance: Mixed Strategies in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:5:y:2009:i:2:n:7
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1173
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mookherjee Dilip & Sopher Barry, 1994. "Learning Behavior in an Experimental Matching Pennies Game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 62-91, July.
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    5. Baumer Ben S, 2008. "Why On-Base Percentage is a Better Indicator of Future Performance than Batting Average: An Algebraic Proof," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-13, April.
    6. Ochs Jack, 1995. "Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria: An Experimental Study," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 202-217, July.
    7. Arijit Mukherji & Kevin A. McCabe & David E. Runkle, 2000. "An experimental study of information and mixed-strategy play in the three-person matching-pennies game," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(2), pages 421-462.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael William Gmeiner, 2019. "History-Dependent Mixed Strategies: Evidence From Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(3), pages 371-398, April.

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    Keywords

    baseball; pitching; game theory;
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