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Inspections to Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Moffitt L. Joe

    (Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Stranlund John K.

    (Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Field Barry C.

    (Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)

Abstract
Protecting against terrorist attacks requires making decisions in a world in which attack probabilities are largely unknown. The potential for very large losses encourages a conservative perspective, in particular toward decisions that are robust. But robustness, in the sense of assurance against extreme outcomes, ordinarily is not the only desideratum in uncertain environments. We adopt Yakov Ben-Haim's (2001b) model of information gap decision making to investigate the problem of inspecting a number of similar targets when one of the targets may be attacked, but with unknown probability. We apply this to a problem of inspecting a sample of incoming shipping containers for a terrorist weapon. While it is always possible to lower the risk of a successful attack by inspecting more vessels, we show that robustness against the failure to guarantee a minimum level of expected utility might not be monotonic. Robustness modeling based on expected utility and incorporating inspection costs yields decision protocols that are a useful alternative to traditional risk analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Moffitt L. Joe & Stranlund John K. & Field Barry C., 2005. "Inspections to Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:johsem:v:2:y:2005:i:3:p:19:n:2
    DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Moffitt, L. Joe & Stranlund, John K. & Osteen, Craig D., 2009. "Securing the Border from Invasives: Robust Inspections Under Severe Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 53127, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    2. Wieck, Christine & Rudloff, Bettina, 2007. "The Bioterrorism Act of the USA and international food trade: evaluating WTO conformity and effects on bilateral imports," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 56(03), pages 1-14.
    3. Yakov Ben‐Haim, 2011. "Interpreting Null Results from Measurements with Uncertain Correlations: An Info‐Gap Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 78-85, January.
    4. Q. Farooq Akram & Yakov Ben-Haim & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2008. "Robust-satisficing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty," Working Paper 2007/14, Norges Bank.
    5. John K. Stranlund & Yakov Ben-Haim, 2006. "Price-Based vs. Quantity-Based Environmental Regulation under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Robust Satisficing Perspective," Working Papers 2006-1, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    6. Stranlund, John K. & Field, Barry C., 2006. "On the Production of Homeland Security Under True Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 14505, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    7. Wieck, Christine & Rudloff, Bettina & Wahl, Thomas I., 2005. "The Bioterrorism Act of the USA and international food trade: Evaluating WTO conformity and effects on bilateral imports," 2005 Annual Meeting, July 6-8, 2005, San Francisco, California 36292, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Alexander Gutfraind, 2023. "Risk-reducing design and operations toolkit: 90 strategies for managing risk and uncertainty in decision problems," Papers 2309.03133, arXiv.org.
    9. Ben-Haim, Yakov & Osteen, Craig D. & Moffitt, L. Joe, 2013. "Policy dilemma of innovation: An info-gap approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 130-138.
    10. Ben-Haim, Yakov, 2021. "Feedback for energy conservation: An info-gap approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Gary Gaukler & Chenhua Li & Rory Cannaday & Sunil Chirayath & Yu Ding, 2011. "Detecting nuclear materials smuggling: using radiography to improve container inspection policies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 65-87, July.
    12. Q. Farooq Akram & Yakov Ben-Haim & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Managing uncertainty through robust-satisficing monetary policy," Working Paper 2006/10, Norges Bank.
    13. Laura McLay & Jamie Lloyd & Emily Niman, 2011. "Interdicting nuclear material on cargo containers using knapsack problem models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 185-205, July.
    14. Wieck, Christine & Rudloff, Bettina, 2007. "The Bioterrorism Act of the USA and international food trade: evaluating WTO conformity and effects on bilateral imports," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 56(3).
    15. Vicki Bier & Naraphorn Haphuriwat, 2011. "Analytical method to identify the number of containers to inspect at U.S. ports to deter terrorist attacks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 137-158, July.

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