The high business cycle correlation between Brazil (the large neighbour in South America) and other countries in the region has been a frequent source of concern for policymakers, as it has been viewed as evidence of the large influence of the former country on its neighbours. This paper studies the importance of such influence, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a vector autoregression setting. We find that, after controlling for common external factors, spillovers from Brazil are only relevant for Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur's members) and Peru, but not for the rest of South America, and these findings are consistent with the extent of trade linkages between these countries. We find also that spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil-specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks – through their impact on Brazil's output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil's currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners."> The high business cycle correlation between Brazil (the large neighbour in South America) and other countries in the region has been a frequent source of concern for policymakers, as it has been viewed as evidence of the large influence of the former country on its neighbours. This paper studies the importance of such influence, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a vector autoregression setting. We find that, after controlling for common external factors, spillovers from Brazil are only relevant for Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur's members) and Peru, but not for the rest of South America, and these findings are consistent with the extent of trade linkages between these countries. We find also that spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil-specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks – through their impact on Brazil's output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil's currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners."> The high business cycle correlation between Brazil (the large neighbour in South America) and other countries in the region has been a fre">
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Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?

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  • Gustavo Adler
  • Sebastián Sosa
Abstract
type="main" xml:id="twec12094-abs-0001"> The high business cycle correlation between Brazil (the large neighbour in South America) and other countries in the region has been a frequent source of concern for policymakers, as it has been viewed as evidence of the large influence of the former country on its neighbours. This paper studies the importance of such influence, documenting trade linkages over the last two decades and quantifying spillover effects in a vector autoregression setting. We find that, after controlling for common external factors, spillovers from Brazil are only relevant for Southern Cone economies (especially Mercosur's members) and Peru, but not for the rest of South America, and these findings are consistent with the extent of trade linkages between these countries. We find also that spillovers can take two different forms: the transmission of Brazil-specific shocks and the amplification of global shocks – through their impact on Brazil's output. Finally, we also find suggestive evidence that depreciations of Brazil's currency may not have significant impact on output of its key trading partners.

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  • Gustavo Adler & Sebastián Sosa, 2014. "Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 456-480, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:37:y:2014:i:3:p:456-480
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    1. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2010. "Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis: What a Difference a Year Makes," IMF Working Papers 2010/035, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Gustavo Adler, 2011. "Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom," IMF Working Papers 2011/283, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Markus Rodlauer & Mr. Alfred Schipke, 2005. "Central America: Global Integration and Regional Cooperation," IMF Occasional Papers 2005/005, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "Spillovers Across NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 2008/003, International Monetary Fund.
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    2. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2013. "External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2013/027, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues, 2021. "Regional and global patterns of participation in value chains: Evidence from Brazil," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 154-171.
    4. Olivier Basdevant & Andrew Jonelis & Borislava Mircheva & Slavi Slavov, 2015. "The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 371-389, September.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Uruguay: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/006, International Monetary Fund.
    6. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes Reynaga, 2020. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Capítulos de libros, in: Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Norman V. Loayza & Nelson R. Ramírez Rondán (ed.), Crecimiento económico en el Perú: causas y consecuencias, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 74-117, Universidad de San Martín de Porres.
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