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The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Ernesto Valenzuela
Abstract
Four West African nations have demanded that the WTO's Doha Development Agenda include a Cotton Initiative that involves two issues: cutting cotton subsidies and tariffs, and assisting farm productivity growth in Africa. This paper provides estimates of the potential economic impacts of (a) complete or partial removal of cotton subsidies and import tariffs globally and (b) cotton productivity growth through the adoption of genetically modified (GM) cotton varieties. Use is made of the GTAP database and global economic model to address both these issues. On Doha, our results confirm that for cotton – unlike for other agricultural subsidies and tariffs – it is subsidy reductions rather than tariff cuts that would make by far the largest impact. For Sub‐Saharan Africa the potential gains are huge relative to the effects on that region of reforming other merchandise trade policies. And they could be more than doubled if that reform provided the cash for farmers to take advantage of the biotechnology revolution and adopt GM cotton varieties. But those potential gains, and the affordability of switching to costly GM seed, depend crucially on the extent to which high‐income countries are willing to lower domestic support to their cotton farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:8:p:1281-1304
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.01053.x
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    as
    1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.
    2. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The relative importance of global agricultural subsidies and market access," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 357-376, November.
    3. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2611.
    4. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889.
    5. Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Martin, William J. & Liu, Yu, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in China," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48478, World Bank.
    6. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen P. & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Edward & Woma, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. And World Agricultural Outlook," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12805, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
      • Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 7296, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    7. John Baffes, 2005. "The "Cotton Problem"," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 20(1), pages 109-144.
    8. Kym Anderson & Lee Ann Jackson, 2005. "Some Implications of GM Food Technology Policies for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(3), pages 385-410, September.
    9. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Would Multilateral Trade Reform Benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(4), pages 626-670, December.
    10. Julian M. Alston & Geoff W. Edwards & Professor John W. Freebairn, 1988. "Market Distortions and Benefits from Research," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(2), pages 281-288.
    11. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2007. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    12. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    13. Harald Grethe, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 33(4), pages 591-595, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    1. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, August.
    2. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Estimating Effects of Price-Distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 877-931, Elsevier.
    3. Delpeuch, Claire & Vandeplas, Anneleen, 2013. "Revisiting the “Cotton Problem”—A Comparative Analysis of Cotton Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 209-221.
    4. Baquedano, Felix G. & Sanders, John H. & Vitale, Jeffrey, 2010. "Increasing incomes of Malian cotton farmers: Is elimination of US subsidies the only solution?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(7), pages 418-432, September.
    5. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2007. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-07, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    6. Antoine Bouët & Guillaume P. Gruère, 2011. "Refining Opportunity Cost Estimates of Not Adopting GM Cotton: An Application in Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 260-279.
    7. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 265-296, January.
    8. Baffes, John, 2010. "Markets for cotton by-products : global trends and implications for African cotton producers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5355, The World Bank.
    9. Antoine Bouet & Guillaume Gruère, 2010. "Refining opportunity cost estimates of not adopting GM cotton : An application in seven sub-saharan african countries," Larefi Working Papers 201002, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    10. Martin, William J. & Anderson, Kym, 2008. "Agricultural trade reform under the Doha Agenda: some key issues," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(1), pages 1-16.
    11. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas W., 2006. "Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21397, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Blasco, Lorea Barron & Devadoss, Stephen & Stodick, Leroy, 2006. "The Doha Round Declaration on Cotton: A Catalyst for Poverty Reduction in Africa?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21161, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Pitoro, Raul & Walker, Thomas S. & Tschirley, David L. & Swinton, Scott M. & Boughton, Duncan & de Marrule, Higino Francisco, 2009. "Can Bt Technology Reduce Poverty Among African Cotton Growers? An Ex Ante Analysis of the Private and Social Profitability of Bt Cotton Seed in Mozambique," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51633, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Wafula, David & Gruère, Guillaume P., 2013. "Genetically modified organisms, exports, and regional integration in Africa," IFPRI book chapters, in: Falck-Zepeda, Jose Benjamin & Gruère, Guillaume P. & Sithole-Niang, Idah (ed.), Genetically modified crops in Africa: Economic and policy lessons from countries south of the Sahara, chapter 5, pages 143-157, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(1), pages 108-139, April.
    16. Stephen Tokarick, 2008. "Dispelling Some Misconceptions about Agricultural Trade Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 199-216, Winter.
    17. Anderson, Kym & Jackson, Lee Ann & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "GM Cotton Adoption, Recent and Prospective: A Global CGE Analysis of Economic Impacts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5568, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Shepherd, Ben & Delpeuch, Claire, 2007. "Subsidies and regulatory reform in West African cotton: What are the development stakes?," MPRA Paper 2289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:ags:aaea22:335726 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Baquedano, Felix G. & Sanders, John H., 2008. "Increasing Cotton Farmers Incomes in Mali West Africa: Eliminate Subsidies in Developed Countries or Productivity Increase in Mali?," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6426, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    21. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Welfare and Poverty Effects of Global Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52785, World Bank.

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