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Will Sub‐Prime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael P. Dooley
  • David Folkerts‐Landau
  • Peter M. Garber
Abstract
We identify incentives generated by the Bretton Woods II system that may have contributed to the sub‐prime liquidity crisis now working its way through the international monetary system. We then evaluate the persistent conjecture that the liquidity crisis is or will become a balance of payments crisis for the United States. Given that it happens, the additional costs associated with a sudden stop of net capital flows to the United States could be quite substantial. But we observe that emerging market governments have continued to acquire US assets even as yields have fallen, and the incentives for continuing to do so remain strong. Moreover, the Bretton Woods II system, which has clearly been the most resilient of the forces driving current markets, continues to generate low real interest rates in industrial countries and growth in emerging markets that will help limit the damage from the liquidity crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts‐Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2009. "Will Sub‐Prime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 655-666, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:17:y:2009:i:4:p:655-666
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2009.00840.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    3. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2006. "Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    4. Michael P. Dooley & Peter M. Garber & David Folkerts-Landau, 2007. "The Two Crises of International Economics," NBER Working Papers 13197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenc, Turalay & Dibooglu, Sel, 2010. "The 2007-2009 financial crisis, global imbalances and capital flows: Implications for reform," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 3-21, March.
    2. Huang, Rocco & Ratnovski, Lev, 2011. "The dark side of bank wholesale funding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 248-263, April.
    3. Huang, R. & Ratnovksi, L., 2009. "The Dark Side of Bank Wholesale Funding," Other publications TiSEM 7f6c9a9c-6cae-4db4-b0bc-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Huang, R. & Ratnovksi, L., 2009. "The Dark Side of Bank Wholesale Funding," Discussion Paper 2009-59 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts‐Landau & Peter Garber, 2009. "Bretton Woods Ii Still Defines The International Monetary System," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 297-311, August.
    6. Astley, Mark & Giese, Julia & Hume, Michael & Kubelec, Chris, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 49(3), pages 178-190.
    7. Chris Hunt, 2008. "Financial turmoil and global imbalances: the end of Bretton Woods II?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, September.
    8. Patrick Carvalho & Renee A. Fry-McKibbin, 2014. "Foreign Reserve Accumulation and the Mercantilist Motive Hypothesis," CAMA Working Papers 2014-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Kessler, Oliver, 2009. "Towards an economic sociology of the subprime crisis?," economic sociology. perspectives and conversations, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, vol. 10(2), pages 11-16.
    10. Piffaretti, Nadia F., 2009. "Reshaping the international monetary architecture : lessons from Keynes'plan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5034, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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