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Energy Subsidy Reform and Poverty in Arab Countries: A Comparative CGE‐Microsimulation Analysis of Egypt and Jordan

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  • John Cockburn
  • Véronique Robichaud
  • Luca Tiberti
Abstract
This study simulates the macroeconomic and distributive impacts of real proposed (by local policy makers) energy subsidy reforms in Egypt and Jordan. To do that, we develop a dynamic CGE‐microsimulation model that is able to reconcile the general equilibrium effects of the reform and the individual‐ and household‐specific distributive effects. While the nature of the proposed reforms differs in the two countries, the study underscores the need, in both countries, for reform to generate fiscal savings to boost private investment and increase economic growth. It also shows that the reform alone would further exacerbate poverty through increased consumer prices. However, a modest reinvestment of fiscal savings into cash transfers creates a win‐win scenario of reduced poverty without significantly sacrificing the fiscal and growth benefits from the reform. Impacts (prices, growth, fiscal savings, poverty) are greater in Egypt due to the extent of proposed reforms and the fact that a larger share of the energy products concerned are consumed directly by households, while in Jordan the major effects come from the increase in intermediate input costs which generate a fall in the aggregate demand and, so, in labor demand.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cockburn & Véronique Robichaud & Luca Tiberti, 2018. "Energy Subsidy Reform and Poverty in Arab Countries: A Comparative CGE‐Microsimulation Analysis of Egypt and Jordan," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(s1), pages 249-273, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:64:y:2018:i:s1:p:s249-s273
    DOI: 10.1111/roiw.12309
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Richiardi, 2017. "Editorial," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-4.
    2. Tiberti, Luca & Maisonnave, Helene & Chitiga, Margaret & Mabugu, Ramos, 2018. "Reforming grants to tackle child poverty: An integrated macro-micro approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 272-281.
    3. Saeed Solaymani, 2021. "Energy subsidy reform evaluation research – reviews in Iran," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 520-538, June.
    4. City Eldeep & Chahir Zaki, 2023. "On the unfinished business of stabilization programs: a CGE model of Egypt," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 66-100, January.
    5. de Bruin, Kelly & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2024. "Efficiency–equity trade-off in the Irish carbon tax: A CGE investigation of mixed revenue recycling schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Yakut, Aykut Mert & de Bruin, Kelly, 2023. "The importance of having a more realistic welfare transfer determination rule: A CGE analysis for Ireland," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1310-1325.
    7. Tchouamou Njoya, Eric, 2020. "An analysis of the tourism and wider economic impacts of price-reducing reforms in air transport services in Egypt," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Liang, Ting & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Qiang, Wei, 2022. "Does technological innovation benefit energy firms’ environmental performance? The moderating effect of government subsidies and media coverage," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    9. Bhuvandas, Dhanyashree & Gundimeda, Haripriya, 2020. "Welfare impacts of transport fuel price changes on Indian households: An application of LA-AIDS model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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