(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)"> (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rdevec/v16y2012i3p412-428.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • James Thurlow
  • Paul Dorosh
  • Winston Yu
Abstract
Climate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:412-428
    DOI: j.1467-9361.2012.00671.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00671.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/j.1467-9361.2012.00671.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.
    2. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    4. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    6. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315.
    7. Hassan, Rashid, 2010. "The double challenge of adapting to climate change while accelerating development in sub-Saharan Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 661-685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Peter & Ali, Snigdha, 2014. "Exploring local perceptions of climate change impact and adaptation in rural Bangladesh:," IFPRI discussion papers 1322, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Elshennawy, Abeer & Robinson, Sherman & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2016. "Climate change and economic growth: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis for Egypt," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 681-689.
    3. Bairagi, Subir & Bhandari, Humnath & Kumar Das, Subrata & Mohanty, Samarendu, 2021. "Flood-tolerant rice improves climate resilience, profitability, and household consumption in Bangladesh," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    4. Shaikh Moniruzzaman, 2019. "Crop Diversification As Climate Change Adaptation: How Do Bangladeshi Farmers Perform?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Md. Nazirul Islam Sarker & Yang Peng & Most. Nilufa Khatun & G. M. Monirul Alam & Roger C. Shouse & Md. Ruhul Amin, 2022. "Climate finance governance in hazard prone riverine islands in Bangladesh: pathway for promoting climate resilience," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1115-1132, January.
    7. Sudeshna Paul & Athula Naranpanawa & Jay Bandaralage & Tapan Sarker, 2018. "Climate change, crop productivity and regional growth disparity in Bangladesh: What does a district-level regional CGE model tell us?," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201803, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    8. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    9. Dorosh, Paul A. & Thurlow, James & Pradesha, Angga & Raihan, Selim, 2020. "Evaluating Food Policy Options in Bangladesh: Economywide Analysis Under Uncertainty," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304635, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Philip Kofi Adom, 2024. "The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in the Next Decades," Working Papers 681, Center for Global Development.
    11. Onil Banerjee & Moogdho Mahzab & Selim Raihan & Nabiul Islam, 2015. "An Economy-Wide Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Agriculture And Food Security In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-17.
    12. Ouraich, Ismail & Dudu, Hasan & Tyner, Wallace E. & Cakmak, Erol, 2014. "Could free trade alleviate effects of climate change? A worldwide analysis with emphasis on Morocco and Turkey," WIDER Working Paper Series 100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Banerjee, Onil & M Mahzab , Moogdho & Asaduzzaman, M, 2015. "Towards 2021: Examining Alternative Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 38(01), pages 77-100, March.
    14. Kabir, Md. Jahangir & Gaydon, Donald S. & Cramb, Rob & Roth, Christian H., 2018. "Bio-economic evaluation of cropping systems for saline coastal Bangladesh: I. Biophysical simulation in historical and future environments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 107-122.
    15. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-082 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ismail Ouraich & Hasan Dudu & Wallace E. Tyner & Erol Cakmak, 2014. "Could Free Trade Alleviate Effects of Climate Change?: A Worldwide Analysis with Emphasis on Morocco and Turkey," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Ashrafun Nahar & Jeff Luckstead & Eric J. Wailes & Mohammad Jahangir Alam, 2018. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 289-304, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, August.
    2. Sudarshan Chalise & Dr Athula Naranpanawa, 2016. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A general equilibrium analysis of land re-allocation in Nepal," EcoMod2016 9272, EcoMod.
    3. Berger, Thomas, 2015. "Adaptation of farm-households to increasing climate variability in Ethiopia: Bioeconomic modeling of innovation diffusion and policy interventions," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 229062, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Elizabeth L. Roos & Heinrich R. Bohlmann & Jan H. van Heerden & Nicholas Kilimani, 2016. "Counting the cost of drought induced productivity losses in an agro-based economy: The case of Uganda," Working Papers 616, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Marye Belete, 2022. "Evaluating the practices of climate-smart agriculture sustainability in Ethiopia using geocybernetic assessment matrix," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 724-764, January.
    6. S. Nazrul Islam & John Winkel, 2017. "Climate Change and Social Inequality," Working Papers 152, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    7. Undp, 2011. "HDR 2011 - Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All," Human Development Report (1990 to present), Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), number hdr2011, September.
    8. Nelson, Gerald C. & Palazzo, Amanda & Mason-DCroz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Thomas, Timothy S., 2013. "Methodology," IFPRI book chapters, in: Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmore, Robert & Roy-Macauley, Harold (ed.), West African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis, chapter 2, pages 37-52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Nicola Ranger & Swenja Surminski, 2011. "A preliminary assessment of the impact of climate change on non-life insurance demand in the BRICS economies," GRI Working Papers 63, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    10. MAMOUDOU Ba & Mazhar Mughal, 2022. "Weather Shocks, Coping Strategies and Household Well-being: Evidence from Rural Mauritania," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(3), pages 482-502, March.
    11. Thomas Berger & Christian Troost & Tesfamicheal Wossen & Evgeny Latynskiy & Kindie Tesfaye & Sika Gbegbelegbe, 2017. "Can smallholder farmers adapt to climate variability, and how effective are policy interventions? Agent-based simulation results for Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(6), pages 693-706, November.
    12. Wossen, Tesfamicheal & Berger, Thomas & Haile, Mekbib G. & Troost, Christian, 2018. "Impacts of climate variability and food price volatility on household income and food security of farm households in East and West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 7-15.
    13. Peeters, Paul M. & Eijgelaar, Eke, 2014. "Tourism's climate mitigation dilemma: Flying between rich and poor countries," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 15-26.
    14. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    15. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
    16. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    17. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    18. Liu, Xing & Lehtonen, Heikki & Purola, Tuomo & Pavlova, Yulia & Rötter, Reimund & Palosuo, Taru, 2016. "Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 65-76.
    19. Chalise, Sudarshan & Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S. & Sarker, Tapan, 2017. "A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 43-50.
    20. Eshita Gupta & Bharat Ramaswami & E. Somanathan, 2021. "The Distributional Impact of Climate Change: Why Food Prices Matter," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 249-275, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:412-428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.