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The long‐term economic implications of Brexit for Scotland: An interregional analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gioele Figus
  • Katerina Lisenkova
  • Peter McGregor
  • Graeme Roy
  • Kim Swales
Abstract
This paper offers a cautionary tale about the economic cost of European disintegration. Scotland provides an interesting twist on that story as somewhere that voted to remain part of the EU, but is now likely to be negatively affected, even though it is less directly exposed to EU trade than the UK. This occurs even if it were to achieve the softer Brexit with continued single market membership to which it aspires. The analysis includes potentially important lessons for the many nations and regions in which there exists pressures to move away from trade liberalization and towards protectionism. Este artículo ofrece una historia con moraleja sobre el costo económico de la desintegración europea. Escocia proporciona un giro interesante en esa historia, por ser un lugar que votó para seguir siendo parte de la UE, pero ahora es probable que se vea afectada negativamente, a pesar de que está menos expuesta directamente al comercio con la UE que el resto del Reino Unido. Esto ocurriría incluso si se lograra un Brexit leve en el que continuaría la membresía del mercado único a la que aspira. El análisis incluye importantes lecciones potenciales para el gran número de naciones y regiones en las que existen presiones para alejarse de la liberalización del comercio en dirección al proteccionismo. 本稿では欧州における統合の崩壊による経済的損失に関する訓話を提示する。スコットランドは、住民のほとんどがEU残留に投票し、このストーリーに興味深い展開を与えたが、今となってはイギリスほどEUとの貿易による直接的な影響を受けてはいないものの、悪影響を受けている可能性が高い。スコットランドが強く希望している、EU単一市場には残留するというソフトブレグジット(soft Brexit:穏健な離脱)が成功したとしても結果は同じである。分析の結果には、貿易自由化を離れて保護貿易主義に向かわせる圧力が存在する多くの国家および地域にとって重要となりうる教訓が含まれている。

Suggested Citation

  • Gioele Figus & Katerina Lisenkova & Peter McGregor & Graeme Roy & Kim Swales, 2018. "The long‐term economic implications of Brexit for Scotland: An interregional analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 91-115, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:97:y:2018:i:1:p:91-115
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12349
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ebell, Monique, 2016. "Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 238, pages 31-42, November.
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    4. Swati Dhingra & Stephen Machin & Henry Overman, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242(1), pages 24-36, November.
    5. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2011. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 113-143, August.
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    7. Jonathan Wadsworth, 2015. "Immigration and the UK Labour Market," CEP Election Analysis Papers 019, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Crawley & Max Munday & Annette Roberts, 2018. "How serious is a devolved data deficit? A Welsh perspective," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 33(8), pages 862-876, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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