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Population Futures for the Next Three Hundred Years: Soft Landing or Surprises to Come?

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  • Paul Demeny
Abstract
The long‐range population projections of the United Nations issued in 2003 span three centuries and are elaborated for all countries of the world according to the present‐day political map. This note discusses the merits and limitations of this ambitious enterprise. The numerical implications of various contrasting assumptions concerning fertility, in combination with single hypothetical future schedules of mortality and international migration, provide a valuable frame of reference for contemplating possible long‐range demographic trajectories. The dominant suggestion of these projections of a surprise‐free convergence to a stationary or slowly declining population is, however, questionable: with respect to global numbers, relative magnitudes of the constituting units of the global total, and the time pattern of change the demographic future is likely to be far less orderly.

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  • Paul Demeny, 2004. "Population Futures for the Next Three Hundred Years: Soft Landing or Surprises to Come?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 507-517, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:30:y:2004:i:3:p:507-517
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00026.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. David S. Reher, 2007. "Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 189-207, June.

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