We show that actively stabilizing economic activity plays a more prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy when potential output is subject to hysteresis. We augment a basic New Keynesian model by hysteresis in potential output and contrast simulation outcomes of this extended model to the standard model. We find that considering hysteresis allows for a more realistic amplification of macroeconomic shocks and persistent movements in output after monetary shocks. Our central policy implication of active output gap stabilization arises from stability analyses and welfare considerations."> We show that actively stabilizing economic activity plays a more prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy when potential output is subject to hysteresis. We augment a basic New Keynesian model by hysteresis in potential output and contrast simulation outcomes of this extended model to the standard model. We find that considering hysteresis allows for a more realistic amplification of macroeconomic shocks and persistent movements in output after monetary shocks. Our central policy implication of active output gap stabilization arises from stability analyses and welfare considerations."> We show that actively stabilizing economic activity plays a more prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy when potential output is">
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Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy

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  • Daniel Kienzler
  • Kai D. Schmid
Abstract
type="main" xml:id="sjpe12050-abs-0001"> We show that actively stabilizing economic activity plays a more prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy when potential output is subject to hysteresis. We augment a basic New Keynesian model by hysteresis in potential output and contrast simulation outcomes of this extended model to the standard model. We find that considering hysteresis allows for a more realistic amplification of macroeconomic shocks and persistent movements in output after monetary shocks. Our central policy implication of active output gap stabilization arises from stability analyses and welfare considerations.

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  • Daniel Kienzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 371-396, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:61:y:2014:i:4:p:371-396
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    1. Tervala, Juha & Watson, Timothy, 2022. "Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2017. "On The Interaction Between Economic Growth And Business Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 982-1022, June.
    3. Dávila-Ospina, Andrés O., 2023. "Hysteresis From Monetary Policy Mistakes: How Bad Could It Be?," Documentos CEDE 21003, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    5. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Hysteresis and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 39-53.
    6. Bas van Aarle & Bas Van Aarle, 2016. "Secular Stagnation: Insights from a New Keynesian Model with Hysteresis Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 5797, CESifo.
    7. Robert Calvert Jump & Paul Levine, 2021. "Hysteresis in the New Keynesian three equation model," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0821, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    8. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda & Julián Roa-Rozo, 2023. "A trend-cycle decomposition with hysteresis," Borradores de Economia 1230, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Sebastian Gechert & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober, 2016. "The European Commission's new NAIRU: Does it deliver?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 6-10, January.
    10. Federico Bassi, 2016. "Aggregate demand, sunk costs and discontinuous adjustments in an amended new consensus model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 313-335, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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