[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/metroe/v72y2021i4p868-904.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Consumer confidence, consumption, and macroeconomic fluctuations: A systemic stock‐flow consistent model

Author

Listed:
  • Sercin Sahin
Abstract
In the past 40 years, consumption and household debt have been the major factor lying behind aggregate fluctuations in economies. This study investigates if the psychological characteristics of households can drive these fluctuations and which policies can be effective in reducing their amplitude. To this end, we have built a system dynamics model based on the stock‐flow consistent framework. Our main finding is that households’ psychological characteristics are the primary determinant of the behavior and stability properties of income, consumption, and household debt. The government can apply countercyclical fiscal or countercyclical transfer policies to tame fluctuations in these variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Sercin Sahin, 2021. "Consumer confidence, consumption, and macroeconomic fluctuations: A systemic stock‐flow consistent model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 868-904, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:72:y:2021:i:4:p:868-904
    DOI: 10.1111/meca.12351
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12351
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/meca.12351?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1204-1239, December.
    2. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
    3. Purvis, Douglas D, 1978. "Dynamic Models of Portfolio Behavior: More on Pitfalls in Financial Model Building," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 403-409, June.
    4. Aymanns, Christoph & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2015. "The dynamics of the leverage cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 155-179.
    5. Hyman P. Minsky, 1977. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis: An Interpretation of Keynes and an Alternative to“Standard” Theory," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 20-27, March.
    6. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2015. "Neglected Risks: The Psychology of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 310-314, May.
    7. Garner, C. Alan, 1981. "Economic determinants of consumer sentiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 205-220, June.
    8. Giuseppe Bertola & Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri, 2005. "Uncertainty and Consumer Durables Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 973-1007.
    9. Christopher D. Carroll, 2004. "Theoretical Foundations of Buffer Stock Saving," Economics Working Paper Archive 517, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    10. Douglas Lamdin, 2008. "Does Consumer Sentiment Foretell Revolving Credit Use?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 279-288, June.
    11. Charles P. Kindleberger & Robert Z. Aliber, 2005. "Manias, Panics and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-62804-5, March.
    12. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    13. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    14. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2015. "Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent modelling: a survey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(1), pages 157-187.
    15. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
    16. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    17. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    18. repec:cii:cepiei:2013-q2-134-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
    20. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
    21. Grieves, Robin, 1983. "The Demand for Consumer Durables," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 316-326, August.
    22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1978. "Consumer Sentiment and Spending on Consumer Durables," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1), pages 217-232.
    23. Edwin Le Heron, 2011. "Confidence and financial crisis in a post-Keynesian stock flow consistent model," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 361-387.
    24. Caiani, Alessandro & Godin, Antoine & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Gallegati, Mauro & Kinsella, Stephen & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2016. "Agent based-stock flow consistent macroeconomics: Towards a benchmark model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 375-408.
    25. Suzanna De Boef & Paul M. Kellstedt, 2004. "The Political (and Economic) Origins of Consumer Confidence," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 633-649, October.
    26. Saul H. Hymans, 1970. "Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(2), pages 173-206.
    27. Pickering, J. F., 1981. "A behavioral model of the demand for consumer durables," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-77, January.
    28. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    29. Van Raaij, W. Fred & Gianotten, Henk J., 1990. "Consumer confidence, expenditure, saving, and credit," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 269-290, June.
    30. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1976. "Illiquidity, Consumer Durable Expenditure, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 642-654, September.
    31. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug), pages 101-131.
    32. Praet, Peter, 1985. "Endogenizing consumers' expectations in four major EC countries," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-269, September.
    33. Katona, George, 1974. "Psychology and Consumer Economics," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 1(1), pages 1-8, June.
    34. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
    35. Wadud, Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Tang, Xueli, 2020. "Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    36. F. Thomas Juster & Paul Wachtel, 1974. "Anticipatory and Objective Models of Durable Goods Demand," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 1, number 2, pages 340-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 32-44.
    38. George Katona, 1971. "Consumer Durable Spending," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 2(1), pages 234-239.
    39. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    40. Michael C. Lovell, 1975. "Why Was the Consumer Feeling So Sad?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 473-479.
    41. George Katona, 1980. "How Expectations Are Really Formed," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 32-35, November.
    42. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1751, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    43. Adrian W. Throop, 1992. "Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 35-59.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2023. "Consumption patterns of indebted households: unravelling the relevance of fiscal policy," Working Papers REM 2023/0282, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Prasada, Imade Yoga & Nugroho, Agus Dwi & Lakner, Zoltan, 2022. "Impact of the FLEGT license on Indonesian plywood competitiveness in the European Union," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Determinants of Consumer Sentiment Over Business Cycles: Evidence from the US Surveys of Consumers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 187-215, December.
    2. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
    3. Malgarini, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2005. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis," MPRA Paper 42443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hatice Gökçe Karasoy Can & Çağlar Yüncüler, 2018. "The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 2136-2152, July.
    5. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
    6. Petar Soric & Mateo Zokalj & Marija Logarusic, 2020. "Economic determinants of Croatian consumer confidence: real estate prices vs. macroeconomy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 18(2B), pages 240-257.
    7. Hardik A. Marfatia & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Predicting Housing Market Sentiment: The Role of Financial, Macroeconomic and Real Estate Uncertainties," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 189-209, May.
    8. Hassan Gholipour Fereidouni & Reza Tajaddini, 2017. "Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Expenditure: The Role of Consumer Confidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 216-236, February.
    9. Hamid Baghestani & Sehar Fatima, 2021. "Growth in US Durables Spending: Assessing the Impact of Consumer Ability and Willingness to Buy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, April.
    10. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    11. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    12. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    13. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    14. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    15. Carroll, Christopher D., 2009. "Precautionary saving and the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 780-790, September.
    16. Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula & Luigi Pistaferri, 2008. "A Direct Test of The Buffer-Stock Model of Saving," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1186-1210, December.
    17. Aymanns, Christoph & Caccioli, Fabio & Farmer, J. Doyne & Tan, Vincent W.C., 2016. "Taming the Basel leverage cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 263-277.
    18. Feigenbaum James A. & Li Geng, 2012. "Life Cycle Dynamics of Income Uncertainty and Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, May.
    19. Padula, Mario, 2010. "An approximate consumption function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 404-416, March.
    20. Poledna, Sebastian & Molina-Borboa, José Luis & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & van der Leij, Marco & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "The multi-layer network nature of systemic risk and its implications for the costs of financial crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 70-81.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:72:y:2021:i:4:p:868-904. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0026-1386 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.