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Linear and Non-Linear Granger Causality Between Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates: A Rolling Window Strategy

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  • Azadeh Rahimi
  • Ba M. Chu
  • Marc Lavoie
Abstract
In this paper, a rolling window strategy is employed to detect the linear and nonlinear Granger causality relationships between the U.S. federal funds rate and the 10-year government bond rate, during different time horizons, investigating whether these causalities change with the passing of time. For linear Granger causality tests, we apply the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) approach and for nonlinear ones we use a nonlinear Granger causality test introduced by Diks and Panchenko (2006). Our findings show that during nearly all time periods there is a significant two-way Granger causality relationship between these two interest rates.
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Suggested Citation

  • Azadeh Rahimi & Ba M. Chu & Marc Lavoie, 2017. "Linear and Non-Linear Granger Causality Between Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates: A Rolling Window Strategy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 882-902, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:68:y:2017:i:4:p:882-902
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/meca.12148
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    2. Huiqing Li & Yang Su, 2021. "The nonlinear causal relationship between short‐ and long‐term interest rates: An empirical assessment of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 332-355, December.
    3. Li, Shuping & Lu, Xinsheng & Li, Jianfeng, 2021. "Cross-correlations between the P2P interest rate, Shibor and treasury yields," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    4. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "Multifactor Keynesian Models of the Long-Term Interest Rate," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_991, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Rahimi , Azadeh, 2019. "The Endogenous or Exogenous Nature of Money Supply: Case of Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 14(1), pages 27-40, January.
    6. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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