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Profiting from the Euro? Seigniorage Gains from Euro Area Accession

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  • Daniel Gros
Abstract
This article puts forward a methodology to assess the fiscal implications for the new EU members from central and eastern Europe (CEECs) of joining the euro area. An application of this methodology under a specific set of conditions shows that the rules of the ECB on the distribution of seigniorage favour poorer countries so that one would expect the new member countries to benefit from participating in the distribution of the profits of the ECB. For two countries the gains could indeed be sizeable, initially almost 1 per cent of GDP, per annum. But for others the gains are more modest. Two factors have tended to reduce the expected financial gains for the new Member States: firstly, since the introduction of the euro, cash use has fallen considerably in the euro area; and secondly, some of the new CEEC members have in general much higher cash‐to‐GDP ratios and therefore earn, for the time being, relatively high domestic seigniorage revenues. Illustrative calculations show that, in present value terms, the gains could reach up to 10 per cent of GDP for poorer countries that catch up only slowly to the EU average. But countries that enter with a GDP per capita above about one‐half of the EU average might actually lose if initially their cash ratios are much above the euro area value.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Gros, 2004. "Profiting from the Euro? Seigniorage Gains from Euro Area Accession," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 795-813, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:42:y:2004:i:4:p:795-813
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0021-9886.2004.00530.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Drazen, Allan, 1985. "A general measure of inflation tax revenues," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 327-330.
    2. Jacek Cukrowski & Emil Stavrev, 2001. "Central bank seigniorage in the Czech Republic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 243-247.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Holger Feist, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The Distribution of Seignorage Wealth in EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series 134, CESifo.
    4. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Feist, Holger, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU1," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 665-689, December.
    5. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi & Daniel Gros, 2000. "Open Issues in European Central Banking," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-333-98188-7, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2016. "Negative Rates and Seigniorage: Turning the central bank business model upside down? The special case of the ECB," CEPS Papers 11753, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Ferré, Montserrat & Garcia, Judit & Manzano, Carolina, 2018. "Tax efficiency, seigniorage and Central Bank Conservativeness," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 218-230.
    3. Martin Cincibuch & Tomáš Holub & Jaromír Hurník, 2009. "Central Bank Losses and Economic Convergence," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(3), pages 190-215, August.
    4. Patrick A. Imam, 2009. "Introducing the Euro as Legal Tender—Benefits and Costs of Eurorization for Cape Verde," IMF Working Papers 2009/146, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Adrian Bodea & José Manuel Sánchez-Santos, 2020. "Seigniorage and inflation tax in Romania. What is the executive giving up by adopting the euro?," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(1), pages 75-91, March.
    6. Garcia Fortuny, Judit, 2014. "The Effects of Corruption and Seigniorage on Growth and Inflation," Working Papers 2072/246961, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    7. Montserrat Ferre & Judit Garcia & Carolina Manzano, 2021. "The Effects of Corruption in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 539-557, July.
    8. Rokas Bancevičius, 2011. "New EU member states and the Euro: economic readiness, benefits and costs," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 461-480, November.
    9. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin05030 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Georgy Ganev, 2009. "Costs and Benefits of Euro Adoption in Bulgaria," Working Paper / FINESS 5.3, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Ferré Carracedo, Montserrat & García Fortuny, Judit & Manzano, Carolina, 2013. "The Conservativeness of the Central Bank when Institutional Quality is Poor," Working Papers 2072/222198, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.

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