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Predicting Stock Market Returns with Aggregate Discretionary Accruals

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  • QIANG KANG
  • QIAO LIU
  • RONG QI
Abstract
We find that the positive relation between aggregate accruals and one‐year‐ahead market returns documented in Hirshleifer, Hou, and Teoh [2009] is driven by discretionary accruals but not normal accruals. The return forecasting power of aggregate discretionary accruals is robust to choices of sample periods, return measurements, estimation methods, business condition and risk premium proxies, and accrual models used to isolate discretionary accruals. Our extensive analysis shows that aggregate discretionary accruals, in sharp contrast to aggregate normal accruals, contain little information about overall business conditions or aggregate cash flows and display little co‐movement with ICAPM‐motivated risk premium proxies. Our findings imply that aggregate discretionary accruals likely reflect aggregate fluctuations in earnings management, thereby favoring the behavioral explanation that managers time aggregate equity markets to report earnings.

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  • Qiang Kang & Qiao Liu & Rong Qi, 2010. "Predicting Stock Market Returns with Aggregate Discretionary Accruals," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 815-858, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:48:y:2010:i:4:p:815-858
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2010.00379.x
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    5. Jeremy Bertomeu, 2013. "Discussion of Earnings Manipulation and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 475-493, May.
    6. Jiajun Jiang & Qi Liu & Bo Sun, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and the (Discretionary) Accrual-return Relation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1300, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Vinay Goyal & Subrata K. Mitra, 2022. "Is the asymmetric impact of aggregate revenue and aggregate earnings on the stock index in accordance with the prospect theory?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 200-222, March.
    8. Mahdi Moradi & Mehdi Jabbari Nooghabi & Mohammad Mahdi Rounaghi, 2021. "Investigation of fractal market hypothesis and forecasting time series stock returns for Tehran Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 662-678, January.
    9. Xanthi Gkougkousi, 2014. "Aggregate Earnings and Corporate Bond Markets," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 75-106, March.
    10. Chad R. Larson & Richard Sloan & Jenny Zha Giedt, 2018. "Defining, measuring, and modeling accruals: a guide for researchers," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 827-871, September.
    11. Hui Guo & Xiaowen Jiang, 2011. "Accruals and the Conditional Equity Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 187-221, March.
    12. Heater, John C. & Nallareddy, Suresh & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2021. "Aggregate accruals and market returns: The role of aggregate M&A activity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2).
    13. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    14. Haga, Jesper & Ittonen, Kim & Tronnes, Per C. & Wong, Leon, 2018. "Is earnings management sensitive to discount rates?," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 75-88.
    15. Yaowen Shan & Stephen Taylor & Terry Walter, 2013. "Fundamentals or Managerial Discretion? The Relationship between Accrual Variability and Future Stock Return Volatility," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49(4), pages 441-475, December.
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