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Transition of the Chinese Economy in the Face of Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts in the Future

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Listed:
  • Jiang Kejun
  • He Chenmin
  • Jiang Weiyi
  • Chen Sha
  • Dai Chunyan
  • Liu Jia
  • Xiang Pianpian
Abstract
China joined the Paris Agreement, and the global 2°C and 1.5°C warming targets will be supported by China. In order to achieve these targets, China's CO2 emissions need to be cut deeply by 2050. The present paper presents studies from the integrated policy assessment model for China (IPAC) team about the impact on China's economic development of deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, in order to realize the Paris climate change targets. With the requirement of deep cuts in GHG emissions in China, China's economic development will also be impacted in moving toward a low‐carbon or zero‐carbon emission‐based economy by 2050. This means the Chinese economy needs a strong transition over the next three decades, a relatively short time. All sectors in the economy need to seek ways to reduce GHG emissions, and this could change activities, industry processes and technologies in order to make the deep cuts in GHG emissions happen. This is the meaning of the economic transition toward to a low‐carbon economy. The findings of the present paper include: a significant transition in the energy supply sector; a high rate of electrification in all end‐use sectors; and a technology transition in the transport sector. Transitions will also occur in the traditional industrial sectors, including steel making, cement manufacture, and the chemical sector. The availability of low‐cost renewable energy could change the allocation of industries, which could potentially have a strong impact on regional economic development. Deep cuts in CO2 emissions in China need not be a burden for economic development, as the IPAC results show there will be a more than 1.5% increase of gross domestic product by 2050 in the deep cut scenario compared with the baseline scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang Kejun & He Chenmin & Jiang Weiyi & Chen Sha & Dai Chunyan & Liu Jia & Xiang Pianpian, 2021. "Transition of the Chinese Economy in the Face of Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts in the Future," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 142-162, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:16:y:2021:i:1:p:142-162
    DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12330
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Pierre Friedlingstein & Nathan P. Gillett & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Keywan Riahi & Myles Allen & Reto Knutti, 2016. "Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 245-252, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nina Khanna & Jiang Lin & Xu Liu & Wenjun Wang, 2024. "An assessment of China’s methane mitigation potential and costs and uncertainties through 2060," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Hidemichi Fujii, 2021. "Comment on “Transition of the Chinese Economy in the Face of Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts in the Future”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 163-164, January.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Energy and the Environment: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Kunkel, S. & Neuhäusler, P. & Matthess, M. & Dachrodt, M.F., 2023. "Industry 4.0 and energy in manufacturing sectors in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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