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Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040

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  • Reda Cherif
  • Fuad Hasanov
  • Aditya Pande
Abstract
Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

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  • Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov & Aditya Pande, 2021. "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 117-137, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:16:y:2021:i:1:p:117-137
    DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12317
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Monge & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "The Lithium Industry and Analysis of the Beta Term Structure of Oil Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, December.
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    3. Tsuguhiko Nakagawa, 2021. "Comment on “Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 140-141, January.
    4. Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "The oil market: recent developments and outlook," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    5. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov & Aditya Pande, 2021. "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 117-137, January.
    6. Kancharapu Aditya & Y. Suresh & R. Dilip Kumar & B. Shiva Naik & B. Nageswar Rao & C. Dhanamjayulu, 2023. "A Single Source Self-Balanced Boost MLI with Reduced Part Count for EV Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, February.
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    8. Clement Oteng & Omowumi Iledare & James Atta Peprah & Pius Gamette, 2024. "Towards Just Energy Transition: Renewable Energy Transition Dynamics and Sectorial Employment in Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-18, April.
    9. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2021. "Energy and the Environment: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, January.
    10. Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "Evolución reciente y perspectivas del mercado de petróleo," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    11. Earl, James & Fell, Michael J., 2019. "Electric vehicle manufacturers' perceptions of the market potential for demand-side flexibility using electric vehicles in the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 646-652.
    12. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "Lithium industry and the U.S. crude oil prices. A fractional cointegration VAR and a Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. John W Lang & N. Aldori, 2020. "An Extension to Late Rentierism, using a Comparative Compound Diversification Index, to Show the Movement Towards Mixed Mode Economic Diversification and Development, in the GCC States," Business and Management Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 4057-4057, December.
    14. Abdellatif Sellami & Mohammad Ammar & Zubair Ahmad, 2022. "Exploring Teachers’ Perceptions of the Barriers to Teaching STEM in High Schools in Qatar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    15. Peszko,Grzegorz & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique & Golub,Alexander Alexandrovich, 2020. "Diversification and Cooperation Strategies in a Decarbonizing World," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9315, The World Bank.
    16. Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2018. "The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8495, The World Bank.
    17. Azam, Muhammad & Ftiti, Zied & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Louhichi, Wael & Verhoeven, Peter, 2022. "Do market-supporting institutions promote sustainable development? Evidence from developing economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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