[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiapr/v15y2020i1p31-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Deplorables, and the First White President

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Noland
Abstract
This paper uses USA county‐level electoral data to examine the 2016 turn to protectionism. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. Exposure to trade competition encouraged a shift to the Republican candidate, but this effect is mediated by race, diversity, education, and age. If the turn toward protectionism is due to economic dislocation, then public policy interventions could mitigate the impact and support the re‐establishment of a political consensus for open trade. If, however, the drivers are identity or cultural values, then the scope for constructive policy intervention is unclear.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Noland, 2020. "Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Deplorables, and the First White President," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 31-50, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:15:y:2020:i:1:p:31-50
    DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12274
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/aepr.12274?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. prices and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102619, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Gene M Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2021. "Identity Politics and Trade Policy [Economics of Identity]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(3), pages 1101-1126.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Reza Baqir & William Easterly, 1999. "Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1243-1284.
    5. Jensen, J. Bradford & Quinn, Dennis P. & Weymouth, Stephen, 2017. "Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on US Presidential Voting," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 423-457, July.
    6. Tella, Rafael Di & Rotemberg, Julio J., 2018. "Populism and the return of the “Paranoid Style”: Some evidence and a simple model of demand for incompetence as insurance against elite betrayal," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 988-1005.
    7. Willer, Robb & Feinberg, Matthew & Wetts, Rachel, 2016. "Threats to Racial Status Promote Tea Party Support among White Americans," Research Papers 3422, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    8. Inglehart, Ronald F. & Norris, Pippa, 2016. "Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash," Working Paper Series 16-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2003. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2028, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Chatib Basri & Hal Hill, 2020. "The Southeast Asian Economies in the Age of Discontent," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 185-209, July.
    2. John Kuk & Deborah Seligsohn & Jiakun Jack Zhang, 2022. "The partisan divide in U.S. congressional communications after the China shock," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 494-526, July.
    3. Junjie Zhao, 2023. "Breaking the general election effect. The impact of the 2020 US presidential election on Chinese economy and counter strategies," Papers 2304.11518, arXiv.org.
    4. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2020. "Trade Wars: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 1-30, January.
    5. Akihiko Yasui, 2020. "Comment on “Protectionism Under Trump: The China Shock, Deplorables, and the First White President”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 53-54, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    2. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    3. Blanchard, Emily J. & Bown, Chad P. & Chor, Davin, 2024. "Did Trump’s trade war impact the 2018 election?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Chen, Shuai, 2023. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism," IZA Discussion Papers 16642, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Vrolijk, Kasper, 2023. "How does globalisation affect social cohesion?," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2023, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    6. Chen, Shuai, 2020. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from Two Quasi-Natural Experiments in the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 652, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Indra de Soysa & Synøve Almås, 2019. "Does Ethnolinguistic Diversity Preclude Good Governance? A Comparative Study with Alternative Data, 1990‐2015," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 604-636, November.
    8. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Bekkers, Eddy & Schroeter, Sofia, 2020. "An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    10. Thiemo Fetzer & Carlo Schwarz, 2021. "Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1717-1741.
    11. Taipeng LI & Lorenzo Trimarchi & Rui XIE & Guohao YANG, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of Trade Protection on the Environment," Working Papers ECARES 2023-16, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    13. Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Policy and the China Syndrome," Working Papers ECARES 2020-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Xavier Jaravel & Erick Sager, 2018. "What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models," Economic Working Papers 506, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    15. Sanyal, Anirban, 2023. "Caught in the Crossfire: How Trade Policy Uncertainty Impacts Global Trade," EconStor Preprints 272825, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Ortega, Francesc & Peri, Giovanni, 2013. "Migration, Trade and Income," IZA Discussion Papers 7325, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Giordani, Paolo E. & Mariani, Fabio, 2022. "Unintended consequences: Can the rise of the educated class explain the revival of protectionism?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    18. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Lake, James & Nie, Jun, 2023. "The 2020 US Presidential election and Trump’s wars on trade and health insurance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Haoyuan Ding & Kees G. Koedijk & Tong Qi & Yanqing Shen, 2022. "U.S.–China trade war and corporate reallocation: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3907-3932, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:15:y:2020:i:1:p:31-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jcerrjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.