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Ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low‐income countries

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  • Genti Kostandini
  • Bradford F. Mills
  • Steven Were Omamo
  • Stanley Wood
Abstract
This article develops a framework to examine the ex ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight low‐income countries, including the benefits to producers and consumers from farm income stabilization and the potential magnitude of private sector profits from intellectual property rights (IPRs). The framework employs country‐specific agroecological–drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research. Benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits, representing 40% of total benefits across the eight countries. Further, estimated annual benefits of US$178 million to the private sector suggest that significant incentives exist for participation in transgenic drought tolerance research.

Suggested Citation

  • Genti Kostandini & Bradford F. Mills & Steven Were Omamo & Stanley Wood, 2009. "Ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low‐income countries," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 477-492, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:40:y:2009:i:4:p:477-492
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2009.00392.x
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    2. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Wu, Wenbin, 2014. "Generating global crop distribution maps: From census to grid," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 53-60.
    3. Carl Pray & Latha Nagarajan & Luping Li & Jikun Huang & Ruifa Hu & K.N. Selvaraj & Ora Napasintuwong & R. Chandra Babu, 2011. "Potential Impact of Biotechnology on Adaption of Agriculture to Climate Change: The Case of Drought Tolerant Rice Breeding in Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Wanjira, John K. & Mburu, John I. & Nzuve, Felister M. & Makokha, Stella & Emongor, Rosemary A. & Taracha, Catheline, 2022. "Impact of climate-smart maize varieties on household income among smallholder farmers in Kenya: The case of Embu County," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(3), September.
    5. Birthal, Pratap S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin & Agarwal, Shaily, 2015. "Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Paul, Laura A., 2018. "The Downside of Good Rains: Drought Risk and WTP for Maize with Weather Contingent Advantages," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274471, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Malacarne, J.G. & Paul, L.A., 2022. "Do the benefits of improved management practices to nutritional outcomes “dry up” in the presence of drought? Evidence from East Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Kostandini, Genti & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Erenstein, Olaf & Sonder, Kai & Gou, Zhe & Setimela, Peter & Menkir, Abebe, 2015. "Potential Impacts of Drought Tolerant Maize: New Evidence from Farm-trials in Eastern and Southern Africa," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204219, Agricultural Economics Society.
    9. Huang, Jikun, 2013. "Financing Sustainable Agriculture Under Climate Change with a Specific Focus on Foreign Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series 047, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Laura A Paul, 2021. "Heterogeneous and conditional returns from DT maize for farmers in Southern Africa [Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(5), pages 1224-1248.
    11. Kostandini, Genti & La Rovere, Roberto & Abdoulaye, Tahirou, 2013. "Potential impacts of increasing average yields and reducing maize yield variability in Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 213-226.
    12. Birthal, Pratap Singh & Nigam, Shyam N. & Narayanan, A.V. & Kareem, K.A., 2012. "Potential Economic Benefits from Adoption of Improved Drought-tolerant Groundnut in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(1), June.
    13. Jikun Huang, 2013. "Financing Sustainable Agriculture Under Climate Change with a Specific Focus on Foreign Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-047, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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