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Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China: 1997–2007

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  • Chengsi Zhang
  • Hong Pang
Abstract
The surge in international capital inflows and the remarkable excess liquidity in China between 1997 and 2007 are examined in the present paper. It is shown that China's improved position in terms of foreign exchange purchases, ignited by huge foreign capital inflows, has effectively induced excess liquidity in China. More importantly, by developing an econometric model for inflation and excess liquidity, the present study demonstrates that excess liquidity has imposed significant pressure on inflation in China over the past 10 years. This finding suggests that excess liquidity in China has not only contributed to the rise in stock prices and the real estate market boom, but also affected the consumer goods market. The potential transmission mechanism of liquidity‐driven inflation and policy implications of the findings of this study are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengsi Zhang & Hong Pang, 2008. "Excess Liquidity and Inflation Dynamics in China: 1997–2007," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00118.x
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00118.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anthony J. Makin, 2007. "Does China's Huge External Surplus Imply an Undervalued Renminbi?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 89-102, May.
    2. Chengsi Zhang, 2007. "Low Inflation, Pass‐through, and a Discrete Inflation‐targeting Framework for Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(2), pages 59-73, March.
    3. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, June.
    4. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
    5. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    6. Polleit, Thorsten & Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 2005. "Measures of excess liquidity," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 65, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. ZHANG Chengsi, 2009. "Structural instability of China inflation dynamics," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 4(1), pages 30-45, March.
    2. Huang Yiping & Wang Xun & Hua Xiuping, 2010. "What Determine China’s Inflation?," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22770, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "An analysis of involuntary excess reserves, monetary policy and risk-taking behaviour of Chinese Banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-72.
    4. Marie-Louise Djigbenou, 2014. "Determinants of Global Liquidity Dynamics:a FAVAR approach," Working Papers hal-00956314, HAL.
    5. Tie Ying Liu & Chi Wei Su & Xu Zhao Jiang & Tsangyao Chang, 2015. "Is There Excess Liquidity in China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 110-126, May.
    6. Chengsi Zhang, 2010. "Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(3), pages 40-55, May.
    7. Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 737-760, June.
    8. Zongxin Qian, 2011. "Global Imbalance, Excess Liquidity and Financial Risk in China," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Wim Meeusen, 2011. "Introduction and Outline," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Financial Market Turmoil: Implications for Monetary Policy Transmission in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 1-22, May.
    11. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "Bank excess reserves in emerging economies: A critical review and research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-166.
    12. Md Gyasuddin Ansari & Rudra Sensarma, 2022. "What Explains Excess Liquidity of Banks? Empirical Evidence from India," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(4), pages 477-503, December.

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