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Price Volatility Spillovers in the Western Canadian Feed Barley, U.S. Corn, and Alberta Cattle Markets

Author

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  • Miao Zhen
  • James Rude
  • Feng Qiu
Abstract
Price volatility complicates price discovery and creates risks for cattle producers. This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in the western Canadian beef cattle supply chain. A modified bivariate VAR†BEKK†GARCH model is used to examine spillovers and account for asymmetries associated with rising versus falling markets. The spillovers that are found are unidirectional from input to output markets. Spillovers tended to be stronger when cattle prices are depressed and feed costs are rising. Volatility transmission is also flows from feed barley to feeder cattle markets, but volatility does not flow in the opposite direction nor does it advance by more than one level in the supply chain. La volatilité des prix complique la découverte des prix et crée des risques pour les éleveurs de bétail. Cet article analyse les répercussions de la volatilité au sein de la chaîne d'approvisionnement des bovins d'élevage. Un modèle VAR†BEKK†GARCH modifié à deux variables sert à l'examen des répercussions et tient compte des asymétries associées aux marchés à la hausse et à la baisse. Les répercussions décelées sont unidirectionnelles du marché des intrants aux produits. Les répercussions semblent plus fortes lorsque les prix des bovins sont bas, et les coûts de fourrage à la hausse. Le transfert de la volatilité se fait aussi sentir de l'orge de fourrage aux marchés de bovins d'engraissement, mais l'inverse ne survient pas et elle ne progresse pas de plus d'un niveau dans la chaîne d'approvisionnement.

Suggested Citation

  • Miao Zhen & James Rude & Feng Qiu, 2018. "Price Volatility Spillovers in the Western Canadian Feed Barley, U.S. Corn, and Alberta Cattle Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 66(2), pages 209-229, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:66:y:2018:i:2:p:209-229
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12146
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    References listed on IDEAS

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