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Uncovering Nonlinear Structure in Real-Time Stock-Market Indexes: The S&P 500, the DAX, the Nikkei 225, and the FTSE-100

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  • Abhyankar, A
  • Copeland, L S
  • Wong, W
Abstract
This article tests for nonlinear dependence and chaos in real-time returns on the world's four most important stock-market indexes. Both Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman and the Lee, White, and Granger neural-network-based tests indicate persistent nonlinear structure in the series. Estimates of the Lyapunov exponents using the Nychka, Ellner, Gallant, and McCaffrey neural-net method and the Zeng, Pielke, and Eyckholt nearest-neighbor algorithm confirm the presence of nonlinear dependence in the returns on all indexes but provide no evidence of low-dimensional chaotic processes. Given the sensitivity of the results to the estimation parameters, the authors conclude that the data are dominated by a stochastic component.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1997. "Uncovering Nonlinear Structure in Real-Time Stock-Market Indexes: The S&P 500, the DAX, the Nikkei 225, and the FTSE-100," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:15:y:1997:i:1:p:1-14
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