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La recuperación del consumo en 2021: un análisis a partir de las expectativas de los consumidores

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Aguilar
Abstract
Las expectativas de los consumidores acerca de la evolución económica constituyen un determinante fundamental de sus decisiones de gasto. Este artículo estima, a través de reglas sencillas de formación de expectativas en el contexto de un modelo de equilibrio general, el grado de persistencia que los hogares asignan al impacto económico de la pandemia. Los resultados muestran que estos agentes han percibido que, en comparación con otras perturbaciones adversas previas, el shock originado por el COVID-19 tiene un grado de persistencia menor. Ello apuntaría, de acuerdo con el modelo utilizado, a un repunte del consumo privado, una vez que se solvente la crisis sanitaria, que tendería a compensar el retroceso observado durante la pandemia.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Aguilar, 2021. "La recuperación del consumo en 2021: un análisis a partir de las expectativas de los consumidores," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue 3/2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:joures:y:2021:i:03:d:aa:n:24
    Note: Artículos Analíticos
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/21/T3/Fich/be2103-art24.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectativas; consumo; aprendizaje.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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