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Probabilistic Expectations in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Adeline Delavande

    (Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, CO4 3SQ Colchester, United Kingdom)

Abstract
Many decisions are made under uncertainty, and individuals are likely to form subjective expectations about the probabilities of events that are relevant to their decisions. I review here a recent and growing literature that uses probabilistic expectations elicited from survey respondents in developing countries. I first present an illustrative model of one particular decision under uncertainty—the choice of a college—to exemplify the importance of subjective expectations data for identification purposes. I then review existing evidence emphasizing that it is feasible to elicit probabilities from survey respondents in low-literacy settings and describe common patterns of answers. Finally, I describe existing applications, many of which seek to assess how expectations influence behavior, in various domains, including health, education, agricultural production, and migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Adeline Delavande, 2014. "Probabilistic Expectations in Developing Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:6:y:2014:p:1-20
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    File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-072413-105148
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    subjective expectations; beliefs; expected returns to education; expected HIV status; expected income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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