[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/apandp/v112y2022p531-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hidden Defaults

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Horn
  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Christoph Trebesch
Abstract
China's lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China's loans, the associated defaults remain "hidden," as missed payments and restructuring details are not disclosed. We construct an encompassing dataset of sovereign debt restructurings with Chinese lenders and find that these credit events are surprisingly frequent, exceeding the number of sovereign bond or Paris Club restructurings. Chinese lenders follow a resolution approach reminiscent of 1980s Western lenders; they seldom provide deep debt relief with face value reduction. If history is any guide, multiyear debt workouts with serial restructurings lie in store.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Horn & Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Hidden Defaults," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 531-535, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:112:y:2022:p:531-35
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20221002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E162501V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221002.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221002.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/pandp.20221002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamon Asonuma & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive Or Post-Default," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 175-214, February.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Relief And Its Aftermath," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 215-251, February.
    3. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "China's overseas lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Mark Wright, 2018. "The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2018 Meeting Papers 928, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Brautigam, Deborah & Acker, Kevin & Huang, Yufan, 2020. "Debt relief with Chinese characteristics," SAIS-CARI Policy Briefs 46/2020, Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), China Africa Research Initiative (CARI).
    6. Asonuma, Tamon & Niepelt, Dirk & Ranciere, Romain, 2023. "Sovereign bond prices, haircuts and maturity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Trebesch, Christoph & Gelpern, Anna & Horn, Sebastian & Morris, Scott & Parks, Bradley, 2021. "How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments," CEPR Discussion Papers 16331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Schmukler, Sergio L. & von Peter, Goetz, 2023. "Bilateral international investments: The big sur?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of official debt restructuring: evidence from the Paris Club," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 344-363.
    10. Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262195534, April.
    11. Cerutti, Eugenio & Casanova, Catherine & Pradhan, Swapan-Kumar, 2023. "Banking across borders: Are Chinese banks different?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Brautigam, Deborah & Acker, Kevin & Huang, Yufan, 2020. "Debt Relief with Chinese Characteristics," SAIS-CARI Working Papers 2020/39, Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), China Africa Research Initiative (CARI).
    13. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2013. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 85-117, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gatien Bon & Gong Cheng, 2021. "Understanding China's role in recent debt relief operations: A case study analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 166, pages 23-41.
    2. Josefin Meyer & Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1615-1680.
    3. Graf von Luckner, Clemens M. & Meyer, Josefin & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2024. "Sovereign haircuts: 200 years of creditor losses," Kiel Working Papers 2270, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Mark Wright, 2018. "The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2018 Meeting Papers 928, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.
    7. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Flavia Corneli, 2024. "Sovereign debt maturity structure and its costs," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 262-297, February.
    9. Lorenzo Forni & Geremia Palomba & Joana Pereira & Christine Richmond, 2021. "Sovereign debt restructuring and growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 671-697.
    10. Gatien Bon & Gong Cheng, 2020. "China’s debt relief actions overseas and macroeconomic implications," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    12. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2019. "Sovereign risk after sovereign restructuring. Private and official default," Working Papers 423, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    13. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2024. "The Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sri Lanka: Anatomy and Policy Options," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 23(2), pages 1-28, Summer.
    14. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IMF Working Papers 2021/233, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Gong Cheng & Javier Diaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of official debt restructuring: evidence from the Paris Club," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 344-363.
    16. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "China's overseas lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Valentin Lang & David Mihalyi & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2023. "Borrowing Costs after Sovereign Debt Relief," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 331-358, May.
    18. Tamon Asonuma & Michael G. Papaioannou & Eriko Togo & Bert van Selm, 2020. "Belize’s 2016–17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring – Third Time Lucky?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(14), pages 47-67, December.
    19. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    20. Mihalyi,David & Hwang,Jyhjong & Rivetti,Diego & Cust,James Frederick, 2022. "Resource-Backed Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9923, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:112:y:2022:p:531-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.