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Learning in Games and the Interpretation of Natural Experiments

Author

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  • Drew Fudenberg
  • David K. Levine
Abstract
We show that the treatment effect estimated by standard methods such as regression discontinuity analysis or difference-in-differences may contain a transient "learning effect" that is entangled with the long-term effect of the treatment. This learning effect occurs when the variable of interest is the agents' efforts, when treatment and control correspond to success or failure: success or failure gives agents information about how much their effort matters, and consequently changes the amount of effort they provide after treatment. We examine the impact of the learning effect and when it is likely to be substantial.

Suggested Citation

  • Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 2022. "Learning in Games and the Interpretation of Natural Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 353-377, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:353-77
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20200106
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General

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