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Measuring Monetary Policy in the Euro Area Using SVARs with Residual Restrictions

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  • Harald Badinger
  • Stefan Schiman
Abstract
This study measures the effects of monetary policy in the euro area using a small number of sign and magnitude restrictions on the residuals of a structural vector autoregression. We derive the dates and directions of these shocks from high-frequency financial market data around official European Central Bank policy announcements. Based on an in-depth narrative analysis and a comparison of the results with those of a standard high-frequency approach, we argue that our approach is purged from central bank information effects. Despite our rather agnostic identification strategy, we find clear and conclusive effects of monetary policy shocks on a wide range of macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Badinger & Stefan Schiman, 2023. "Measuring Monetary Policy in the Euro Area Using SVARs with Residual Restrictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 279-305, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:279-305
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210035
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    2. Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 1-40, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Matthew Read, 2021. "Identification and Inference Under Narrative Restrictions," Papers 2102.06456, arXiv.org.
    2. Geiger, Martin & Güntner, Jochen, 2024. "The chronology of Brexit and UK monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Ratcliff, Ryan D., 2024. "A Comment on "Measuring Monetary Policy in the Euro Area Using SVARs with Residual Restrictions"," I4R Discussion Paper Series 160, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    4. Odendahl, Florens & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Penalver, Adrian & Rossi, Barbara & Sestieri, Giulia, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy effects. Does the shape of the yield curve matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    5. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2023. "On (Current) Monetary Tightening and Inflation," WIFO Research Briefs 1, WIFO.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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