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Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas

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  • Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau
Abstract
We use a large Texas database to quantify the effect of rising wind generation on the payoffs of a tolling agreement for natural-gas-fired generation of electricity. We find that while a 20% increase in wind generation may not have a statistically-significant effect, a 40% increase can reduce the agreement's average payoff by 8% to 13%. Since natural-gas-fired generation is necessary for integrating large amounts of intermittent wind energy into an electric grid, our finding contributes to the policy debate of capacity adequacy and system reliability in a restructured electricity market that will see large-scale wind-generation development.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Brian Horii, Ren Orans, and Jay Zarnikau, 2012. "Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:33-1-a08
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    Cited by:

    1. Levin, Todd & Botterud, Audun, 2015. "Electricity market design for generator revenue sufficiency with increased variable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 392-406.
    2. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Hedging spark spread risk with futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 731-746.
    3. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
    4. Spodniak, Petr & Bertsch, Valentin, 2017. "Determinants of power spreads in electricity futures markets: A multinational analysis," Papers WP580, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. J. Zarnikau & C. Woo & R. Baldick, 2014. "Did the introduction of a nodal market structure impact wholesale electricity prices in the Texas (ERCOT) market?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 194-208, April.
    6. Damien, Paul & Fuentes-García, Ruth & Mena, Ramsés H. & Zarnikau, Jay, 2019. "Impacts of day-ahead versus real-time market prices on wholesale electricity demand in Texas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 259-272.
    7. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    8. Barbose, Galen & Wiser, Ryan & Heeter, Jenny & Mai, Trieu & Bird, Lori & Bolinger, Mark & Carpenter, Alberta & Heath, Garvin & Keyser, David & Macknick, Jordan & Mills, Andrew & Millstein, Dev, 2016. "A retrospective analysis of benefits and impacts of U.S. renewable portfolio standards," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 645-660.
    9. Woo, C.K. & Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Zarnikau, J., 2019. "A wholesale electricity market design sans missing money and price manipulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Woo, C.K. & Ho, T. & Zarnikau, J. & Olson, A. & Jones, R. & Chait, M. & Horowitz, I. & Wang, J., 2014. "Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 234-244.
    11. Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Jay Zarnikau, Jack Moore, Brendan Schneiderman, Tony Ho, and Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    12. Dong-Hyun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & In-Hyeo Jung & Douglas Alleman, 2019. "The Efficacy of the Tolling Model’s Ability to Improve Project Profitability on International Steel Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Consolación Quintana-Rojo & Fernando-Evaristo Callejas-Albiñana & Miguel-Ángel Tarancón & Isabel Martínez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Econometric Studies on the Development of Renewable Energy Sources to Support the European Union 2020–2030 Climate and Energy Framework: A Critical Appraisal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-26, June.
    14. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    15. Ricardo Gonçalves & Flávio Menezes, 2022. "Market‐wide impact of renewables on electricity prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(320), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    17. Spodniak, Petr & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "Is flexible and dispatchable generation capacity rewarded in electricity futures markets? A multinational impact analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    18. Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S. & Woo, C.K. & Tsai, C.H., 2020. "Texas's operating reserve demand curve's generation investment incentive," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Massimiliano Celli, 2016. "External VS. Internal Audit in the Accounting of Complex Contractual Instruments: A Survey on EU Firms," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(5), pages 1-22, April.
    20. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    21. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    22. Sreedharan, P. & Farbes, J. & Cutter, E. & Woo, C.K. & Wang, J., 2016. "Microgrid and renewable generation integration: University of California, San Diego," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 709-720.
    23. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2019. "Renewable energy's vanishing premium in Texas's retail electricity pricing plans," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 764-770.

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