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Knightian uncertainty and stock-price movements: Why the REH present-value model failed empirically

Author

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  • Frydman, Roman
  • Goldberg, Michael D.
  • Mangee, Nicholas
Abstract
Macroeconomic models that are based on either the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) or behavioral considerations share a core premise: All future market outcomes can be characterized ex ante with a single overarching probability distribution. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of this premise using a novel data set. The authors find that Knightian uncertainty, which cannot be reduced to a probability distribution, underpins outcomes in the stock market. This finding reveals the full implications of Robert Shiller's ground-breaking rejection of the class of REH present-value models that rely on the consumption-based specification of the risk premium. The relevance of Knightian uncertainty is inconsistent with all REH models, regardless of how they specify the market's risk premium. The authors' evidence is also inconsistent with bubble accounts of REH models' empirical difficulties. They consider a present-value model based on a New Rational Expectations Hypothesis, which recognizes the relevance of Knightian uncertainty in driving outcomes in real-world markets. Their novel data is supportive of the model's implications that rational forecasting relies on both fundamental and psychological factors.

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  • Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael D. & Mangee, Nicholas, 2015. "Knightian uncertainty and stock-price movements: Why the REH present-value model failed empirically," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-50.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201524
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Roman Frydman & Nicholas Mangee, 2021. "Expectations Concordance and Stock Market Volatility: Knightian Uncertainty in the Year of the Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-13, November.
    2. Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Roman Frydman & Soeren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth�s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 19-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Mangee, Nicholas, 2024. "Stock price swings and fundamentals: The role of Knightian uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Roman Frydman & Soren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth`s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Working Papers Series 92, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    6. Marsay, David, 2016. "Decision-making under radical uncertainty: An interpretation of Keynes' treatise," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-31.
    7. Michael D. Goldberg & Olesia Kozlova & Deniz Ozabaci, 2020. "Forward Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: More Risky Not Less Rational," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.
    8. Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Knightian uncertainty; structural change; fundamentals; psychology; presentvalue model; stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General

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