Knightian uncertainty and stock-price movements: Why the REH present-value model failed empirically
Author
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2015-24
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael D. & Mangee, Nicholas, 2015. "Knightian uncertainty and stock-price movements: Why the REH present-value model failed empirically," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-38, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
References listed on IDEAS
- Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012.
"Regime Changes and Financial Markets,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
- Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timmermann, Allan & Ang, Andrew, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 8480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988.
"Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends,"
Papers
334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013.
"Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models,"
Nobel Prize in Economics documents
2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Lars Peter Hansen, 2014. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Working Papers 2014-06, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
- Lars Peter Hansen, 2014. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," NBER Working Papers 20394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985.
"Stock Prices and Economic News,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
- Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1984. "Stock Prices and Economic News," NBER Working Papers 1296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roman Frydman & Michael Goldberg & Nicholas Mangee, 2015. "New Evidence for the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Why the REH Version Failed Empirically," Working Papers Series 2, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
- Ray C. Fair, 2002.
"Events That Shook the Market,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October.
- Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Events that Shook the Market," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm149, Yale School of Management.
- Ray Fair, 2003. "Events that Shook the Market," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm307, Yale School of Management.
- Gutierrez, Maria-Jose & Vazquez, Jesus, 2004. "Switching equilibria: the present value model for stock prices revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2297-2325, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001.
"Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update,"
NBER Working Papers
8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
- Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-472, June.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005.
"An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1434, CESifo.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "An Interview with Thomas J. Sargent," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-2, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 11 Jan 2005.
- John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005.
"The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
- John H. Boyd & Ravi Jagannathan & Jian Hu, 2001. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good for Stocks," NBER Working Papers 8092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Mangee, 2014. "Stock Prices, the Business Cycle and Contingent Change: Evidence from Bloomberg News Market Wraps," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2165-2178.
- Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
- Jacob Boudoukh & Ronen Feldman & Shimon Kogan & Matthew Richardson, 2013. "Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis," NBER Working Papers 18725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
- McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Roman Frydman & Nicholas Mangee, 2021.
"Expectations Concordance and Stock Market Volatility: Knightian Uncertainty in the Year of the Pandemic,"
JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-13, November.
- Roman Frydman & Nicholas Mangee, 2021. "Expectations Concordance and Stock Market Volatility: Knightian Uncertainty in the Year of the Pandemic," Working Papers Series inetwp164, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
- Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
- Roman Frydman & Soeren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth�s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 19-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Mangee, Nicholas, 2024. "Stock price swings and fundamentals: The role of Knightian uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
- Roman Frydman & Soren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth`s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Working Papers Series 92, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
- Marsay, David, 2016. "Decision-making under radical uncertainty: An interpretation of Keynes' treatise," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-31.
- Michael D. Goldberg & Olesia Kozlova & Deniz Ozabaci, 2020. "Forward Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: More Risky Not Less Rational," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.
- Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- James Ming Chen, 2017. "Systematic Risk in the Macrocosm," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, in: Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing, chapter 0, pages 239-274, Palgrave Macmillan.
- Roman Frydman & Michael Goldberg & Nicholas Mangee, 2015. "New Evidence for the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Why the REH Version Failed Empirically," Working Papers Series 2, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
- James Ming Chen, 2017. "Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-319-63465-4, June.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016.
"Macro news and stock returns in the Euro area: A VAR-GARCH-in-mean analysis,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 180-188.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2014. "Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Mean Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1399, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2014. "Macro News and Stock Returns in the Euro Area: A VAR-GARCH-in-Means Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4912, CESifo.
- GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Ariel M. Viale & Antoine Giannetti & Luis Garcia-Feijoó, 2020. "The stock market’s reaction to macroeconomic news under ambiguity," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(1), pages 65-97, March.
- Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007.
"The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
- GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1982, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Branston, Christopher B. & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2004. "Investment and share prices: fundamental versus speculative components," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, August.
- Vegard Høghaug Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2022.
"Asset returns, news topics, and media effects,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 838-868, July.
- Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2017. "Asset returns, news topics, and media effects," Working Paper 2017/17, Norges Bank.
- Vegard H ghaug Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2017. "Asset returns, news topics, and media effects," Working Papers No 5/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009.
"Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
- GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "Short-term market timing using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006090, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2224, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017.
"Macro News and Commodity Returns,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 68-80, January.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "Macro News and Commodity Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series 5551, CESifo.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "Macro News and Commodity Returns," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1508, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Nicholas Mangee, 2014. "Stock Prices, the Business Cycle and Contingent Change: Evidence from Bloomberg News Market Wraps," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2165-2178.
- Entorf, Horst & Steiner, Christian, 2006.
"Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose,"
Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics
159, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
- Entorf, Horst & Steiner, Christian, 2006. "Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 36782, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
- Entorf, Horst & Steiner, Christian, 2006. "Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-008, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Entorf, Horst & Steiner, Christian, 2009. "Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77415, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
- Feipeng Zhang & Yun Hong & Yanhui Jiang & Jiayi Yu, 2022. "Impact of national media reporting concerning COVID-19 on stock market in China: empirical evidence from a quantile regression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(33), pages 3861-3881, July.
- Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011.
"Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Campbell, John Y., 2003.
"Consumption-based asset pricing,"
Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887,
Elsevier.
- John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Zeynep Senyuz, 2011.
"Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, September.
- Senyuz, Zeynep, 2009. "Factor Analysis of Permanent and Transitory Dynamics of the U.S. Economy and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 26855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
- Roman Frydman & Soeren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth�s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 19-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
More about this item
Keywords
Knightian uncertainty; structural change; fundamentals; psychology; presentvalue model; stock prices;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.