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Zehn Jahre nach dem großen Knall: wie ist es um die Stabilität der internationalen Immobilienmärkte bestellt?

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  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Michelsen, Claus
Abstract
Zehn Jahre nach der weltweiten Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise, die ihren Ursprung auf dem US-amerikanischen Immobilienmarkt hatte, steigen angesichts weltweit zunehmender Preise für Wohneigentum die Sorgen vor neuen Immobilienpreisblasen. Dieser Beitrag zeigt auf Basis von OECD-Daten für 20 Länder, dass die Sorge nicht unberechtigt ist: In acht Ländern deutet die Immobilienpreisentwicklung auf ein spekulatives Anlageverhalten von Investor hin. Vor allem die nach wie vor hohe Verschuldung der privaten Haushalte und das allgemein sehr niedrige Zinsniveau sprechen vielerorts für eine neue Blase. Anzeichen für spekulative Überbewertungen gibt es auch in Deutschland, allerdings in erster Linie in den großen Metropolen. Die volkswirtschaftlichen Risiken sind nicht zuletzt wegen der deutlich niedrigeren Verschuldung der Privathaushalte hierzulande überschaubar. Handlungsbedarf besteht dennoch: Zwar ist es mittlerweile möglich, die Kreditvergabe mit makroprudenziellen Instrumenten einzuschränken. Allerdings ist das Instrumentarium unvollständig, denn es fehlt an klaren Regeln, wann eine gesamtwirtschaftlich kritische Entwicklung zu einem regulierenden Eingriff führt.

Suggested Citation

  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus, 2019. "Zehn Jahre nach dem großen Knall: wie ist es um die Stabilität der internationalen Immobilienmärkte bestellt?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 67-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:235707
    DOI: 10.1365/s41056-019-00034-z
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    Cited by:

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