[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v64y2019i04ns0217590817450059.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Growth In China And Its Potential Impact On Australia–China Bilateral Trade: A Projection For 2025 Based On The Cge Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • YU SHENG

    (Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Science, The Peking University, Beijing 100080, China)

  • PETER DRYSDALE

    (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia)

  • CHUNLAI CHEN

    (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia)

Abstract
This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Static Model to predict the potential impact of economic growth in China on bilateral trade between China and Australia in 2025, under three different scenarios representing the business as usual, the successful reform and the stagnation cases, respectively. The results show that exports from Australia to China will continue to increase in both absolute and relative terms, irrespective of which economic growth path China takes, partly due to the strong complementary relationship of production between the two countries. The results also indicate that education service exports will become a new engine of bilateral trade in addition to agricultural and mineral products. Furthermore, comparing the results obtained from the three scenarios shows how successful reform will bring more benefits to both China and Australia in trade, which provides useful insights for policy making to facilitate bilateral economic relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Sheng & Peter Drysdale & Chunlai Chen, 2019. "Economic Growth In China And Its Potential Impact On Australia–China Bilateral Trade: A Projection For 2025 Based On The Cge Analysis," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(04), pages 839-862, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:64:y:2019:i:04:n:s0217590817450059
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590817450059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590817450059
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0217590817450059?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Xiaohui & Buck, Trevor & Shu, Chang, 2005. "Chinese economic development, the next stage: outward FDI?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 97-115, February.
    2. Paul Hubbard & Dhruv Sharma, 2016. "Understanding and applying long-term GDP projections," EABER Working Papers 25601, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Shun-Chiao Chang, 2014. "The Determinants and Motivations of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Spatial Gravity Model Approach," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 244-268, September.
    4. William X. Wei & Ilan Alon, 2010. "Chinese outward direct investment: a study on macroeconomic determinants," International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 352-369.
    5. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969.
    6. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    7. Wilson Au Yeung & Michael Kouparitsas & Nghi Luu & Dhruv Sharma, 2013. "Long term international GDP projections," Treasury Working Papers 2013-02, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Sep 2013.
    8. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Hinrich Voss & Ping Zheng, 2007. "The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 38(4), pages 499-518, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen, Thi Tuong Anh & Doan, Quang Hung, 2016. "Chinese outward foreign direct investment: Is ASEAN a new destination?," MPRA Paper 71890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ling Feng & Lulan Ge & Zhiyuan Li & Ching‐Yi Lin, 2022. "Financial development and natural resources: The dynamics of China’s outward FDI," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 739-762, March.
    3. Chunlai Chen, 2018. "Impact of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Its Regional Economic Growth," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 26(3), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Rishika Nayyar & Jaydeep Mukherjee, 2018. "Outward FDI from India: A macro level examination in the presence of structural breaks," Working Papers 1833, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    5. Lin Cui & Fuming Jiang, 2010. "Behind ownership decision of Chinese outward FDI: Resources and institutions," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 751-774, December.
    6. Khanindra Ch. Das, 2013. "Home Country Determinants of Outward FDI from Developing Countries," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 93-116, February.
    7. Ren, Siyu & Hao, Yu & Wu, Haitao, 2022. "The role of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on green total factor energy efficiency: Does institutional quality matters? Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Irina Jormanainen & Alexei Koveshnikov, 2012. "International Activities of Emerging Market Firms," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 691-725, October.
    9. Wang, Chengqi & Hong, Junjie & Kafouros, Mario & Boateng, Agyenim, 2012. "What drives outward FDI of Chinese firms? Testing the explanatory power of three theoretical frameworks," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 425-438.
    10. Wang, Xiaoying & Anwar, Sajid, 2022. "Institutional distance and China's horizontal outward foreign direct investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-22.
    11. Li, Lei & Luo, Changtuo, 2023. "Does administrative decentralization promote outward foreign direct investment and productivity? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Xing Zhou & Quan Guo & Ming Zhang, 2021. "Impacts of OFDI on Host Country Energy Consumption and Home Country Energy Efficiency Based on a Belt and Road Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-25, November.
    13. Huiying Zhang & Yikang Liu, 2022. "Do Foreign Direct Investment and Migration Influence the Sustainable Development of Outward Foreign Direct Investment? From the Perspective of Intellectual Property Rights Protection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Chris Wagner, 2020. "Deducing a state-of-the-art presentation of the Eclectic Paradigm from four decades of development: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 51-96, February.
    15. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Agro-processing and horticultural exports from Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-174, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Yanfeng Liu & Miao Su & Jinjing Zhao & Sally Martin & Kum Fai Yuen & Choong-Bae Lee, 2023. "The determinants of China’s outward foreign direct investment: a vector error correction model analysis of coastal and landlocked countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 29-56, February.
    17. Narula, Rajneesh, 2010. "Much ado about nothing, or sirens of a brave new world?: MNE activity from developing countries and its significance for development," MERIT Working Papers 2010-021, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    18. Justin Paul & Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "The 45 years of foreign direct investment research: Approaches, advances and analytical areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(11), pages 2512-2527, November.
    19. Stoian, Carmen, 2013. "Extending Dunning's Investment Development Path: The role of home country institutional determinants in explaining outward foreign direct investment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 615-637.
    20. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Agro-processing and horticultural exports from Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 174, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:64:y:2019:i:04:n:s0217590817450059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.