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Climate Change Adaptation to Heat Risk at the Local Level: A Bayesian Network Analysis of Local Land-Use Plan Implementation

Author

Listed:
  • Julie Donner

    (Environmental Assessment and Planning Research Group, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany)

  • Nora Friederike Sprondel

    (Environmental Assessment and Planning Research Group, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany)

  • Johann Köppel

    (Environmental Assessment and Planning Research Group, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany)

Abstract
Urban and environmental planning plays an important role in climate change adaptation. In this area, most German cities have developed adaptation strategies, inter alia tackling growing urban heat effects. Still in question, however, is how these measures will be implemented at the local level. The goal of this paper is to assess the implementation probability of climate change adaptation measures via local land-use plans using a Bayesian Network approach. Six plans were analysed in-depth. We used expert interviews to estimate the likelihood of implementing climate-adapted measures. Whether a local land-use plan stimulates climate change adaptation depends on a combination of different factors, e.g. the setting of the borough councillor in exchange with an investor, in a next step the willingness of the plans’ creator to implement adaptation strategies as well as an existing environmental report.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Donner & Nora Friederike Sprondel & Johann Köppel, 2017. "Climate Change Adaptation to Heat Risk at the Local Level: A Bayesian Network Analysis of Local Land-Use Plan Implementation," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-29, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jeapmx:v:19:y:2017:i:02:n:s1464333217500107
    DOI: 10.1142/S1464333217500107
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Koomen & Vasco Diogo, 2017. "Assessing potential future urban heat island patterns following climate scenarios, socio-economic developments and spatial planning strategies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 287-306, February.
    2. Uusitalo, Laura, 2007. "Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 312-318.
    3. Julie Donner & Juliana Mercedes Müller & Johann Köppel, 2015. "Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities?," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(02), pages 1-17.
    4. Thomas Measham & Benjamin Preston & Timothy Smith & Cassandra Brooke & Russell Gorddard & Geoff Withycombe & Craig Morrison, 2011. "Adapting to climate change through local municipal planning: barriers and challenges," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(8), pages 889-909, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erlwein, Sabrina & Meister, Juliane & Wamsler, Christine & Pauleit, Stephan, 2023. "Governance of densification and climate change adaptation: How can conflicting demands for housing and greening in cities be reconciled?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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