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The Role Of Border Carbon Adjustments In A U.S. Carbon Tax

Author

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  • WARWICK J. MCKIBBIN

    (The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia2The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, USA)

  • ADELE C. MORRIS

    (The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, USA)

  • PETER J. WILCOXEN

    (The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, USA3Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York, USA)

  • WEIFENG LIU

    (The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia)

Abstract
This paper examines carbon tax design options in the United States using an intertemporal computable general equilibrium model of the world economy called G-Cubed. In this paper, we discuss four policy scenarios that explore two overarching issues: (1) the effects of a carbon tax under alternative assumptions about the use of the resulting revenue, and (2) the effects of a system of import charges on carbon-intensive goods (“border carbon adjustments” or BCAs).Consistent with earlier studies, we find that the carbon tax raises considerable revenue and reduces CO2 emissions significantly relative to baseline, no matter how the revenue is used. Gross annual revenue from the carbon tax with lump sum rebating and no BCA begins at $110 billion in 2020 and rises gradually to $170 billion in 2040. By 2040, annual CO2 emissions fall from 5.5 billion metric tons (BMT) under the baseline to 2.4 BMT, a decline of 3.1 BMT, or 57%. Cumulative emissions over 2020 to 2040 fall by 48 BMT.Also consistent with earlier studies, we find that the carbon tax has very small overall impacts on gross domestic product (GDP), wages, employment, and consumption. Different uses of the revenue from the carbon tax result in slightly different levels and compositions of GDP across consumption, investment and net exports. Overall, using carbon tax revenue to reduce the capital income tax rate results in better macroeconomic outcomes than using the revenue for lump sum transfers.Counter to their purported purpose of protecting U.S. trade strength, for a given revenue policy, BCAs tend to produce lower net exports than the carbon taxes alone. This is generally because the BCAs raise the value of the dollar relative to other currencies, thus lowering exports more than they lower imports. This is consistent with standard results in the international trade literature on the effects of import tariffs and export subsidies on real exchange rates, a result that is often overlooked in the discussion of domestic carbon policy.In a finding new to the literature, our results show that BCAs can have strikingly different effects depending on the use of the revenue. Under a lump sum rebate, BCAs exacerbate the impact of the carbon tax by lowering domestic output further than it would fall under the carbon tax alone. Under a capital tax swap, however, BCAs have a moderating effect: they reduce the impact of the tax on most industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen & Weifeng Liu, 2018. "The Role Of Border Carbon Adjustments In A U.S. Carbon Tax," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-41, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:09:y:2018:i:01:n:s2010007818400110
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007818400110
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    Cited by:

    1. Bellora, Cecilia & Fontagné, Lionel, 2023. "EU in search of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    2. James R. Mcfarland & Allen A. Fawcett & Adele C. Morris & John M. Reilly & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2018. "Overview Of The Emf 32 Study On U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-37, February.
    3. Alexander R. Barron & Allen A. Fawcett & Marc A. C. Hafstead & James R. Mcfarland & Adele C. Morris, 2018. "Policy Insights From The Emf 32 Study On U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-47, February.
    4. N. B. Melnikov & A. P. Gruzdev & M. G. Dalton & M. Weitzel & B. C. O’Neill, 2021. "Parallel Extended Path Method for Solving Perfect Foresight Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 517-534, August.
    5. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle, 2023. "Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 299-329, July.
    6. Y.-H. Henry Chen & Hossein Hosseini Jebeli & Craig Johnston & Sergey Paltsev & Marie-Christine Tremblay, 2023. "An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy," Staff Working Papers 23-27, Bank of Canada.
    7. Bellora, Cecilia, 2020. "Carbon Border Adjustment and Alternatives," Conference papers 333210, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Allen A. Fawcett & James R. Mcfarland & Adele C. Morris & John P. Weyant, 2018. "Introduction To The Emf 32 Study On U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-7, February.
    9. Devarajan, Shanta & Go, Delfin S. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2022. "The Role of Trade Policy in Climate Mitigation: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)," Conference papers 333494, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Soomi Lee, 2020. "Fiscal Therapy: Curing America's Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future by William G. Gale, Cambridge, UK: Oxford University Press, 2019, 352 pp., $29.95(US), hardback," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 858-862, June.
    11. Alexander Krenek & Mark Sommer & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2020. "A WTO-compatible Border Tax Adjustment for the ETS to Finance the EU Budget," WIFO Working Papers 596, WIFO.
    12. Banerjee, Suvajit, 2021. "Conjugation of border and domestic carbon adjustment and implications under production and consumption-based accounting of India's National Emission Inventory: A recursive dynamic CGE analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 68-86.
    13. Overland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat, 2022. "Know your opponent: Which countries might fight the European carbon border adjustment mechanism?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    14. Cecilia Bellora & Lionel Fontagné, 2022. "EU in Search of a WTO-Compatible Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism," Working Papers 2022-01, CEPII research center.
    15. Alexander Krenek & Mark Sommer & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2019. "Sustainability-oriented Future EU Funding. A European Border Carbon Adjustment," WIFO Working Papers 587, WIFO.
    16. Matsumura, Kohei & Naka, Tomomi & Sudo, Nao, 2024. "Analysis of the transmission of carbon taxes using a multi-sector DSGE," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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