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Optimal Inspection of Imports to Prevent Invasive Pest Introduction

Author

Listed:
  • Cuicui Chen
  • Rebecca S. Epanchin‐Niell
  • Robert G. Haight
Abstract
The United States imports more than 1 billion live plants annually—an important and growing pathway for introduction of damaging nonnative invertebrates and pathogens. Inspection of imports is one safeguard for reducing pest introductions, but capacity constraints limit inspection effort. We develop an optimal sampling strategy to minimize the costs of pest introductions from trade by posing inspection as an acceptance sampling problem that incorporates key features of the decision context, including (i) simultaneous inspection of many heterogeneous lots, (ii) a lot‐specific sampling effort, (iii) a budget constraint that limits total inspection effort, (iv) inspection error, and (v) an objective of minimizing cost from accepted defective units. We derive a formula for expected number of accepted infested units (expected slippage) given lot size, sample size, infestation rate, and detection rate, and we formulate and analyze the inspector's optimization problem of allocating a sampling budget among incoming lots to minimize the cost of slippage. We conduct an empirical analysis of live plant inspection, including estimation of plant infestation rates from historical data, and find that inspections optimally target the largest lots with the highest plant infestation rates, leaving some lots unsampled. We also consider that USDA‐APHIS, which administers inspections, may want to continue inspecting all lots at a baseline level; we find that allocating any additional capacity, beyond a comprehensive baseline inspection, to the largest lots with the highest infestation rates allows inspectors to meet the dual goals of minimizing the costs of slippage and maintaining baseline sampling without substantial compromise.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuicui Chen & Rebecca S. Epanchin‐Niell & Robert G. Haight, 2018. "Optimal Inspection of Imports to Prevent Invasive Pest Introduction," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 603-619, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:3:p:603-619
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12880
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ilya V. Surkov & Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink & Wopke van der Werf, 2009. "The optimal amount and allocation of sampling effort for plant health inspection," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 36(3), pages 295-320, September.
    2. Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S. & Liebhold, Andrew M., 2015. "Benefits of invasion prevention: Effect of time lags, spread rates, and damage persistence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-153.
    3. S. Andrew Starbird, 2005. "Moral Hazard, Inspection Policy, and Food Safety," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(1), pages 15-27.
    4. Mark R. Powell, 2014. "Optimal Food Safety Sampling Under a Budget Constraint," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 93-100, January.
    5. Pamela K. Lattimore & Joanna R. Baker & Lance A. Matheson, 1996. "Monitoring Drug Use Using Bayesian Acceptance Sampling: The Illinois Experiment," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(2), pages 274-285, April.
    6. Ameden, Holly A. & Cash, Sean B. & Zilberman, David, 2007. "Border Enforcement and Firm Response in the Management of Invasive Species," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(Special), pages 1-12, October.
    7. Springborn, Michael R. & Lindsay, Amanda R. & Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S., 2016. "Harnessing enforcement leverage at the border to minimize biological risk from international live species trade," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 98-112.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:15:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Batabyal, Amitrajeet & Yoo, Seung Jick, 2008. "A theoretical analysis of random inspections and fines in invasive species management," MPRA Paper 72007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tao Peng & Seung Jick Yoo, 2008. "A theoretical analysis of random inspections and fines in invasive species management," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(15), pages 1-9.
    11. Springborn, Michael R., 2014. "Risk aversion and adaptive management: Insights from a multi-armed bandit model of invasive species risk," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 226-242.
    12. Juliann E Aukema & Brian Leung & Kent Kovacs & Corey Chivers & Kerry O Britton & Jeffrey Englin & Susan J Frankel & Robert G Haight & Thomas P Holmes & Andrew M Liebhold & Deborah G McCullough & Betsy, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Non-Native Forest Insects in the Continental United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-7, September.
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    1. Yemshanov, Denys & Haight, Robert G. & Koch, Frank H. & Venette, Robert C. & Swystun, Tom & Fournier, Ronald E. & Marcotte, Mireille & Chen, Yongguang & Turgeon, Jean J., 2019. "Optimizing surveillance strategies for early detection of invasive alien species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 87-99.

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