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A Common Rationale for Global Sensitivity Measures and Their Estimation

Author

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  • Emanuele Borgonovo
  • Gordon B. Hazen
  • Elmar Plischke
Abstract
Measures of sensitivity and uncertainty have become an integral part of risk analysis. Many such measures have a conditional probabilistic structure, for which a straightforward Monte Carlo estimation procedure has a double‐loop form. Recently, a more efficient single‐loop procedure has been introduced, and consistency of this procedure has been demonstrated separately for particular measures, such as those based on variance, density, and information value. In this work, we give a unified proof of single‐loop consistency that applies to any measure satisfying a common rationale. This proof is not only more general but invokes less restrictive assumptions than heretofore in the literature, allowing for the presence of correlations among model inputs and of categorical variables. We examine numerical convergence of such an estimator under a variety of sensitivity measures. We also examine its application to a published medical case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Borgonovo & Gordon B. Hazen & Elmar Plischke, 2016. "A Common Rationale for Global Sensitivity Measures and Their Estimation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1871-1895, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:10:p:1871-1895
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12555
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    References listed on IDEAS

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